Today, May 18th, Dow made a down day, which was the 13th down day in the previous three weeks or 15 days. Since 1970 Dow has had such a losing streak only 24 times (excluding the current one). Out of these, 11 times Dow had a positive day next day and 14 times it went on to record another down day.

However, when Dow was above its 200-day moving average then it had such a streak only twice and both times it recorded a positive day next day. This makes the odds for a positive Monday for Dow quite high.

But don’t count too much on it as the market is beholden to the European debt crisis and in such a fearful environment anything could happen.