This year the bear trade on Monday Before June Expiration Friday in our Almanac Trader portfolio did not work. As we prepare to take a long position for the first trading day in July, we will exit this trade. For reporting purposes, we use the closing price on June 30th. This year the long ProShares UltraShort…
The last day of 2nd quarter for the US markets has been bearish. Stock Traders Almanac gives Dow a 68% chance of being down. Since 2000, Dow has been down 57% of times. However, the average return is not much. We also think that the last day of the 2nd quarter is not a trade-able event. In…
In late May we had outlined our sugar trading strategy in the summer. We entered the trade in June 4th. This year our trade has done quite well. The exit window for the trade has opened up. Today’s price action convinces us to exit the trade. For reporting purposes we will use June 27th closing…
This year’s post-Quad witching in June trades in our Almanac Trader portfolio scored another home run. The market has been defying expectations and keep on going up. Still, they dipped briefly for our post-expiration trades to close at profit. Till yesterday morning, eight of nine ETF trades that we execute for this strategy had exited. The last remaining…
Early in June we had entered long trades in our long British Pound in June strategy. Now comes another opportunity to enter this trade. We usually follow four entry strategies.On close of June 11th, we had issued three trade alerts. The fourth one will trigger at the close of June 27th. We will hold this trade till mid-July. We will send…
8:30 AM: Unemployment claims in line @ 312K Core PCE Price Index m/m also in line @ 0.2% Personal Spending m/m disappointed @ 0.2% vs. 0.4% expected Personal Income m/m also disappointed @ 0.4% vs. 0.5% expected eMini hardly budged – 15Min chart Market Notes 7:00 AM: EMini futures are in the middle of a horizontal channel. On…
The Q1 of 2014 was greatly affected by the weather and most economist were projecting a contraction to the tune of -1.7%. However, the Bureau of Economic Analysis, puts the decline to -2.9% at an annualized rate, which is sharply down from BEA’s previous estimate of -1.0%. The dollar index fell off the bed and…
In our Witches’ Brew in June, we noted that the Monday after quad-witching day in June has a bearish tone. Specifically, we found that since 1990, Dow declined 71% of times on Monday after June expiration, S&P 500 58% of times, NASDAQ 67% of times and Russell 2000 71% of times. The 2014 was not much different. On Monday after quad-witching…
Economic Report 2:00 AM – GfK German Consumer Climate of 8.9 beat the consensus of 8.5 3:00 AM – Spanish PPI y/y were better @ -0.4% vs. -0.6% 3:00 AM – Austrian Industrial Production (YoY) came at 0.4% vs. 0.8% forecast 3:00 AM – Dutch GDP (YoY) were 0.0% vs .-0.5% 4:00 AM – Italian Retail Sales…
Economic Report 4:00 AM – German Ifo Business Climate of 109.7 missed the forecast of 110.3. German DAX is struggling to get off the lows. 4:30 AM – UK BBA Mortgage Approvals beat at 41.8K but GBP/USD is lower 9:00 AM – US S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 HPI y/y reading of 10.8% disappointed the forecast of 11.7%; HPI…
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