The Return of Volatility

“In any investment, you expect to have fun and make money”. – Michael Jordan Even though the market had healthy gains for 2014 – Dow was up 7.5%,S&P 500 was up 11.4%, NASDAQ was up 13.4% and Russell was up 3.5% – the volatility was markedly down. For the year, Dow Jones Industrial Average had 84 days…

What Were They Thinking?

Porsche makes powerful cars and there have been many cases in which after an accident involving a Porsche, the survivor or survivor’s family sued the auto-manufacture with claims that its cars are too powerful for ordinary people or roads. There is no doubt that many drivers of elite cars like Porsche and Ferrari have no idea how powerful these cars are and…

Roaring Consumer Sentiments

Though the U.S. Retails sales disappointed on Wednesday, the University of Michigan’s Preliminary Consumer Sentiment index did not. For the month of December 2014, it came at 98.2 compared to the expectations of 94.2 and prior month’s reading of 93.6. Same with UoM’s Inflations Expectation reading. It was 2.4%, though it declined from previous month’s expectations…

Killing Softly – The CPI Edition

The U.S. December CPI report came on the softer side. Here are the highlights: Month-over-Month Headline CPI Headline CPI m/m came at -0.4% versus -0.3% expected Gasoline index declined by -9.4% and food index rose by +0.3% so did the index for natural gas and electricity Month-over-Month Core CPI (excluding food and energy) The m/m…

Not Over For Franc

Yesterday SNB announced removal of floor for EUR/CHF. Today’s retails sales are not helping the situation. The inflation adjusted retail sales fell -1.2% on year-over-year basis for the month of December 2014. Here is the graph and the downward trend is unmistakable. The ogre of deflation is becoming more menacing.

Around The Net: Morning News For January 16th, 2015

Noted for morning rumination or procrastination – take your pick. Bracing for Stagnation A New Ceiling for Oil Prices Quantitative easing in the Eurozone: It’s possible without fiscal transfers Battling Global Unemployment: Too Soon to Declare Victory Inflation Doesn’t Hurt So Much, Does It? Fed’s Kocherlakota: Fed Taking Risk On Credibility of 2% Inflation Target What…

The Swiss Fondue

Swiss National Bank’s decision to reverse its August 2011 decision – that had established a floor for franc against the euro at 1.20 level – sent the waves of ripples across the global markets. The franc immediately appreciated 14% against the euro and 13% against the US dollar and the British pound. The Swiss Market Index (SMI), made up of…

The Swiss Franking

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) shocked the world with its decision to remove the Euro floor. The franc declined over 15% versus the Euro. Since August 2011, the SNB had been defending the EUR/CHF exchange rate at 1.20 level. It decided to do that after the EU fell in grips of various crises and the franc appreciated 40%…

Around The Net: Morning News For January 15th, 2015

SNB Unexpectedly Gives Up Cap on Franc, Lowers Deposit Rate European Stocks Advance as Switzerland Ends Exchange-Rate Cap India cuts key interest rate in surprise move Sensex rallies over 700 points, reclaims 28000 on RBI surprise rate cut American jobs are back, but wages aren’t. Is this normal now? Dr. Copper Is Turning Bearish Lessons…

Retail Sales Miss

The optimism surrounding the big increase in quarterly GDP was dampened today after U.S. Census Bureau announced the retail sales. Month-over-month The seasonally adjusted U.S. retail sales for December declined by -0.9% from previous month. The estimates was +0.2%. Previous month’s month-over-month rate was also revised down to +0.4% from 0.7%. The Core Retail Sales…