Market Diary – Thursday July 14, 2016

Directional Bias For The Day:

• The bias is to the up side
• The 30-minute chart of S&P 500 futures is trending above a uptrend line and is still showing breakouts above many bullish flags for the past few days
• Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2152.42 and 2146.21
• Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2167.42 and 2175.00 ;
• Early morning futures price action is to the upside – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 was up by +18.00, Dow by +149.00 and NASDAQ by +31.00

Before NYSE Session Open

On Wednesday, S&P 500 was unchanged for the day and made a doji at the upper end of Tuesday’s range. NASDAQ Composite, on the other hand, made a bearish engulfing pattern.

Asian Session

The Asian bourses were mostly up on Thursday.

• Shanghai Composite was down by -6.671 or -0.22% to 3054.018 and made a down-sloping flag on 30-minute charts
• Hang Seng was up +238.69 or +1.12%; it continues up after the break above a symmetric triangle
• Nikkei 225 closed up by +154.46 or +0.95 to 16385.89; it also made a bullish engulfing candle for the day
• Sydney’s S&P/ASX 200 gained +23.10 or +0.43% to 5411.60 and is approaching the upper bound of a previous rectangle trading range
• Sensex gained +126.93 or +0.46; it too made a bullish engulfing candle for the day
• South Korea’s Kospi gained +3.22 or +0.16%

European Session

In pre-US session, for the sixth day in a row, the European stock markets are mostly up.

• DAX is up by +143.36 or +1.44% to 10074.07 as it continues to fill June 24th gap down
• FTSE-100 is up +28.64 or +0.43% to 6699.04
• CAC-40 is up by +1.34%, Spanish IBEX up by +0.97%, STOXX-600 by +0.95, Swiss SMI-SWX by +0.41%, and Italian FTSE MIB by +1.60%,

Currencies

• U.S. Dollar index is up by +0.047, still in the handle of an uneven cup-with-handle pattern
• EUR/USD is up by +15.4 pips to 1.11100;
• GBP/USD is up by +184.0 pips to 1.3316, marching towards a resistance of 1.3534
• USD/JPY is up by +143.5 pips (Yen is weaker) to 105.807; next resistance is at 106.840

Commodities

• WTI Crude is up by +1.59% to 45.52; Natural Gas is up by +0.15% to 2.741
• Gold is down by -20.1 to 1322.35; Silver is down by -1.07% to 20.190
•  Copper is up by +0.11% to 2.2425

Yields

• U.S. Treasury yields are up after closing down on Wednesday after a gap-down; 30-year yield is up to 2.262% and 10-year to 1.548%

Pivot Levels:

S&P 500 is above its 10-D EMA, 10-D EMA crossed above 20-D EMA and its 20-D EMA is trending above 50-D EMA since March 9, 2016.

Note: The probability of a level breaking is shown above is for the current condition when the price is above 20-D EMA, 10-D EMA is above 20-D EMA and 20-D EMA is above 50-D EMA. R2 break probability comes in picture only when R1 is broken. So are the probabilities calculated for R3, S2 and S3