Market Diary – Wednesday July 27, 2016

Directional Bias For The Day:

• Likelihood of a range bound day with reasonable chance for it to break above the resistance
• The 4-Hour chart of S&P 500 future is still showing a narrow rectangle trading range since July 13th, bounded between 2173 and 2153
• Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2162.33, 2160.18 and 2155.79
• Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2173.54, 2180.99 and 2188.45
• Early morning futures price action is slightly to the upside; at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 future was up by +5.50, Dow is up by +63.00 and NASDAQ is up by +39.75.

Before NYSE Session Open

Major US indices were range bound on Tuesday. S&P 500 rose at the start and then fell before closing the day unchanged with +0.70 gain.. The Dow Jones Industrial Average’s action was similar and it closed down -19.31 points. NASDAQ Composite also traded within a narrow range but its action was more bullish as it formed a bullish engulfing candlestick pattern. Russell 2000 had a similar price-action then that of NASDAQ.

Asian Session

The Asian bourses were mixed on Wednesday.

• Shanghai Composite was down by -58.167 or -1.91% to 2891.99
• Hang Seng was up +89.26 or +0.40% to 22218.99
• Nikkei 225 gained +281.78 or +1.72% to 16664.82
• Sydney’s S&P/ASX 200 gained +2.2 or +0.04% to 5539.70
• Sensex was up by +47.81 or +0.17% to 28024.33
• South Korea’s KOSPI was down by -2.29 or -0.11%

European Session

In pre-US session, the European stock markets are mostly up.

• DAX is up by +95.46 or +0.93%
• FTSE-100 is up by +53.92 +0.80% to 6777.95
• CAC-40 is up by +1.61% to 4465.52; Spanish IBEX is up by +1.65% to 8701.40; Italian FTSE MIB is up by +1.62% to 16968.13; Swiss SMI-SWX is up by +0.22% to 8245.63; and, STOXX-600 is up +0.75% to 343.82

Currencies

• U.S. Dollar index is up by +0.072 to 97.24
• EUR/USD is up by +13.3 pips to 1.09974
• GBP/USD is down by -11.00 pips to 1.3126
• USD/JPY is up by +92.9 pips (Yen is weaker) to 105.665

Commodities

• WTI Crude is up by -0.06 or +0.16% to 42.99; Natural Gas is up by +0.018 or +0.66% to 2.73
• Gold is up by +6.20 or +0.47% to 1327.00; Silver is up by +0.387 or +1.97% to 20.070
• Copper is down by -0.016 or -0.72% to 2.2095

Yields

• U.S. Treasury yields are down for the day so far
• 30-year yield is down 1.6 basis points to 2.264% and 10-year is down by -1.4 basis points to 1.549%

Pivot Levels:

S&P 500 is above its 10-D EMA, 10-D EMA crossed above 20-D EMA and its 20-D EMA is trending above 50-D EMA since March 9, 2016.

Note: The probability of a level breaking is shown above is for the current condition when the price is above 20-D EMA, 10-D EMA is above 20-D EMA and 20-D EMA is above 50-D EMA. R2 break probability comes in picture only when R1 is broken. So are the probabilities calculated for R3, S2 and S3