Market Diary – Thursday July 28, 2016

Directional Bias For The Day:

• Greater likelihood of a range bound day
• The 4-Hour chart of S&P 500 future is still showing a narrow rectangle trading range since July 13th, bounded between 2173 and 2153
• Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2159.07, 2155.79 and 2146.21
• Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2174.94, 2182.79 and 2190.59
• Early morning futures price action is indecisive; at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 future was down by -1.00, Dow is down by -21.00 and NASDAQ is down by -4.25

Before NYSE Session Open

Major US indices were again range bound on Tuesday. S&P 500 is in a narrow range. NASDAQ seems to be breaking above the resistance and Russell 2000 I close behind. Dow Jones Industrial Averages is declining slightly after making an evening-star pattern few days ago. It could still turn out to be a flag.

S&P 500 fell at the start and then rose before closing the day with -2.20 loss.. The Dow Jones Industrial Average’s action was similar and it closed down -1.58 points. NASDAQ Composite gapped up at the start and then tested the gap but did not fill. It closed up by +29.76 but still below the open. Russell 2000 gained +2.07 o +0.2% but closed near the open.

Asian Session

The Asian bourses were mixed on Thursday.

• Shanghai Composite was up by +2.32 or +0.08% to 2991.32
• Hang Seng was down -44.65 or -0.20% to 22174.34
• Nikkei 225 lost -187.98 or -1.13% to 16476.84
• Sydney’s S&P/ASX 200 gained +16.9 or +0.31% to 5556.60
• Sensex was up by +184.29 or +0.66% to 28208.62
• South Korea’s KOSPI was down by -3.95 or -0.20%

European Session

In pre-US session, the European stock markets are mostly down.

• DAX is down by -3.64 or -0.04% to 10315.91
• FTSE-100 is down by -11.48 or -0.17% to 6738.95
• CAC-40 is down by -0.81% to 4443.99
• Spanish IBEX is down by -1.49% to 8532.90
• Italian FTSE MIB is down by -1.19% to 16662.98
• Swiss SMI-SWX is down by -0.88% to 8149.31
• STOXX-600 is down -0.43% to 341.26

Currencies

• U.S. Dollar index is down by -0.547 to 96.495
• EUR/USD is up by +40.0 pips to 1.10945
• GBP/USD is down by -671.00 pips to 1.3144
• USD/JPY is down by -40.4 pips (Yen is stronger) to 104.889

Commodities

• WTI Crude is down by -0.07 or -0.17% to 41.85; Natural Gas is up by +0.019 or +0.75% to 2.680
• Gold is up by +13.80 or +1.04% to 1340.40; Silver is up by +0.137 or +1.03% to 20.360
• Copper is up by +0.029 or +1.33% to 2.214

Yields

• U.S. Treasury yields are up for the day so far
• 30-year yield is up +2.2 basis points to 2.25% and 10-year is up by +1.7 basis points to 1.532%

Pivot Levels:

S&P 500 is above its 10-D EMA, 10-D EMA crossed above 20-D EMA and its 20-D EMA is trending above 50-D EMA since March 9, 2016.

Note: The probability of a level breaking is shown above is for the current condition when the price is above 20-D EMA, 10-D EMA is above 20-D EMA and 20-D EMA is above 50-D EMA. R2 break probability comes in picture only when R1 is broken. So are the probabilities calculated for R3, S2 and S3