Directional Bias For The Day:
- Greater likelihood of a range bound day
- The 30-minute chart of S&P 500 future is carving out a symmetric triangle within a narrow rectangle trading box, which has been in effect since July 13th, bounded between 2173 and 2153
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2159.74, 2154.44 and 2149.14
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2174.98, 2180.66 and 2188.47
- Early morning futures price action is slightly to the down-side; at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 future was down by -2.50, Dow is down by -40.00 and NASDAQ is up by +5.25
Before NYSE Session Open
Similar to Wednesday, on Thursday, S&P 500 fell at the start and then rose before closing the day with +3.48 gain. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined by -15.82. After closing at an all time high of July 20th, Dow has declined five times out of six trading days. NASDAQ Composite gained +15.17 but Russell 2000 lost -1.60.
Asian Session
The Asian bourses were mixed on Friday.
- Shanghai Composite was down by -14.94 or -0.50% to 2979.34
- Hang Seng was down by -282.97 or -1.28% to 21891.37
- Nikkei 225 gained +92.43 or +0.56% to 16569.27
- Sydney’s S&P/ASX 200 gained +5.8 or +0.10% to 5562.40
- Sensex was down by -156.76 or -0.56% to 28051.86
- South Korea’s KOSPI was down by -4.91 or -0.24%
European Session
In pre-US session, the European stock markets are mixed.
- DAX is up by +29.11 or +0.28% to 10304.04
- FTSE-100 is down by -17.46 or -0.26% to 6703.60
- CAC-40 is down by -0.01% to 4420.35
- Spanish IBEX is up by +1.54% to 8609.40
- Italian FTSE MIB is up by +2.14% to 16875.45
- Swiss SMI-SWX is up by +0.39% to 8126.78
- STOXX-600 is up +0.37% to 340.72
Currencies
- U.S. Dollar index is down by -1.001 to 95.72
- EUR/USD is up by +79.9 pips to 1.11561
- GBP/USD is up by +71.00 pips to 1.3230
- USD/JPY is down by -252.5 pips (Yen is stronger) to 102.751
Commodities
- WTI Crude is down by -0.07 or -0.17% to 41.07; Natural Gas is unchanged at 2.873
- Gold is up by +12.70 or +0.95% to 1345.00; Silver is up by +0.173 or +0.86% to 20.365
- Copper is up by +0.0020 or +0.09% to 2.211
Yields
- U.S. Treasury yields are down for the day so far
- 30-year yield is down -0.3 basis points to 2.226% and 10-year is down by -2.4 basis points to 1.487%
Pivot Levels:
S&P 500 is above its 10-D EMA, 10-D EMA crossed above 20-D EMA and its 20-D EMA is trending above 50-D EMA since March 9, 2016.
| S&P 500 Cash | eMini Futures | |||
| Daily | Level | Break Chance |
Level | Break Chance |
| Pivot | 2167.55 | 2162.25 | ||
| R1 | 2175.36 | 60% | 2171.00 | 56% |
| R2 | 2180.66 | 42% | 2177.25 | 32% |
| R1 | 2188.47 | 48% | 2186.00 | 26% |
| S1 | 2162.25 | 36% | 2156.00 | 36% |
| S2 | 2154.44 | 33% | 2147.25 | 24% |
| S3 | 2149.14 | 23% | 2141.00 | 23% |
Note: The probability of a level breaking is shown above is for the current condition when the price is above 20-D EMA, 10-D EMA is above 20-D EMA and 20-D EMA is above 50-D EMA. R2 break probability comes in picture only when R1 is broken. So are the probabilities calculated for R3, S2 and S3
