Market Remarks

Market Diary – Monday September 12, 2016

Sunil Sharma

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • The futures facing downward pressure but odds are for a sideways move with down pressure
  • Futures are sideways since Asian session on Sunday (U.S. time) after falling more in the after-market trading post-NYSE close on Friday
  • Futures off the lows of 2100.25 by more than ten points
  • Markets in Asia were mostly down overnight and European stocks are down too
  • On Friday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (Dec contract) closed at 2120.50 and the index closed at 2127.81 – a spread of about 7.25 points

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2113.00, 2106.97, and 2098.70
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2127.81, 2133.74 and 2141.02
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the downside; at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures was down by -5.00, Dow was down by -56 and NASDAQ was down by -17.25

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

Monthly
  • Up trend since Feb 08, 2016
Weekly:
  • Current uptrend under pressure
  • Fallen below an up-trending 10-week SMA
  • Up trend since Feb 08, 2016 with one pullback; broke out of a 2-year trading range in July, 2016
  • Last swing low, 1991.68, was reached on June 27, 2016
Daily
  • Uptrend under pressure
  • Price below 50-day for the first time since June 29
  • Red range-expansion day
  • Critical support of 214758 was broken on Friday
  • 38.2% retracement from last low is 2116.59
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • Spike down; broken below many support levels
  • Next low swing 2087.50 of July 8 followed by 2081.75 of July 7
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Water-fall down move
  • Consolidating at the lows between 2100.25  and 2108.50 since Asian session

Before NYSE Session Open

On Friday, U.S. market took lead to the downside from Asian and European markets, which followed the mellowed mood of U.S. investors on Thursday following ECB President Draghi’s press conference. For the first four days of the week S&P 500 traded within a 14 point range. On Friday, it dipped by more than 50 points. It was a 90% down-day (90% of the volume was to the downside).

On Friday:

Up Down Last Notes
S&P 500   -53.49 or -2.5%  2127.81
  • Many support level broken
  • Next swing low 1991.68
  • 50% retracement is at 2092.75
Dow Jones Industrial Average   -394.46 or -2.1%  18085.45
  • Next swing low is 17063.08
  • 38.2% retracement is 18055.13 and 50% is 17865.76
NASDAQ Composite   -133.57 or -2.5%  5125.91
  • Next swing low is at 5109.80
Russell 2000 -39.15 or -3.1% 1219.21
  • Next swing low is at 1198.73
Dow Jones Transportation Average -254.01 or -3.1%  7822.59
  • Next swing low is at 7804.62
VIX +4.99 or +39.9%   17.50

Sector Rotation and Relative Strength

Click here to check out how S&P 500 sectors shaped up for the week and how the Select Sector ETFs are poised for the near future.

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