Morning Notes – Tuesday November 15, 2016

/ November 15, 2016

Directional Bias For The Day:

S&P 500 eMini Futures (2-hourl) 15-Nov-16 8:30 AM

  • The futures are trending up
  • Symmetrical triangle on 30-minute chart
  • Odds are for a down day

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East were generally down – only Hong Kong was up
  • European markets are mixed – Germany, U.K, France and Spain are up; Italy and Switzerland are down
  • Dollar index, EUR/USD and USD/JPY are up; GBP/USD is down
  • Commodities are mixed – Crude, NastGas, gold and silver are up; copper is up

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2156.08, 2152.49, and 2151.17
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2171.36, 2178.26 and 2181.30
  • Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2169.75, the 4:00 AM high, and break below 2161.50, the low of 7:30 AM

Pre-Open

  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 8:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +5.25, Dow by +15.00 and NASDAQ by +29.75
  • On Monday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (Dec contract) closed at 2160.25 and the index closed at 2164.20 – a spread of about 4.00 points; futures closed at 2160.50 for the day

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

Monthly
  • Up trend since Feb 08, 2016
Weekly:
  • Current uptrend under pressure; recent price action may relieve the pressure for uptrend to resume; closer to uptrend resumption than reversal
  • Above an up trend since Feb 08, 2016 with one pullback; broke out of a 2-year trading range in July, 2016
  • Last swing low, 1991.68, was reached on June 27, 2016
  • Broke below a small bearish ABCD pattern with a downside target near 2105.30 (100% – met), 2076.77 (138.2%), 2067.96 (150%), 2059.14 (161.8%)
  • Broken below 2015 high, which was acting as a resistance
  • Crossed above 39-week SMA after falling below it; above 89-week SMA
Daily
  • Above 100-day, 200-day, 50-day and 20-day SMA
  • Down trend line broken to the upside; at the broken line from below, may act as a resistance
  • Sequence of lower highs and lower lows broken but reverse sequence hasn’t started
  • Price above EMA-10 since November 7; EMA-10 crossed above EMA-20
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • Generally trending down after making a high of 2180.50 at 2:00 AM on November 10, near the high of September 22
  • A descending triangle is emerging
  • At 20-bar EMA
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • An emerging triangle – symmetrical or almost descending – near the high of 2180.50, highest since September 9; with the recent move to the upper limit

Previous Session

S&P 500 14-Nov-16Major U.S. market indices were mixed on Monday. S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite declined but Dow Jones Industrial Average and Russell 2000 gained.

Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 made doji candle with almost equal sized upper and lower shadows. Dow’s pattern came at the top of recent rally from November 4.

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