Morning Notes – Thursday November 17, 2016

/ November 17, 2016

Directional Bias For The Day:

S&P 500 eMini Future (2-hourly) 17-Nov-16 6:40 AM

  • The futures are drifting up
  • Narrow trading range of ten points since 3:00 AM on November 16
  • Odds are for a range bound day with an upside bias
  • Econ data to look for CPI, Philly Fed and Unemployment Claims

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East were mixed – Hong Kong and Mumbai were down; Shanghai, Tokyo, Sydney and Seoul were up
  • European markets are mixed – Germany and Italy are down; France, Spain, Switzerland and STOXX 600 are up
  • Dollar index and USD/JPY are up; EUR/USD and GBP/USD are down
  • Commodities are mixed – crude oil, gold and silver are up; NatGas and copper are down

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2172.20, 2166.38 and 2156.08
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2180.84, 2187.71 and 2193.42
  • Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2178.25, high at 9:00 PM on November 16, and break below 2172.00, the low of 3:00 AM

Pre-Open

  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 7:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +1.75, Dow by +8.00 and NASDAQ by +13.25
  • On Wednesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (Dec contract) closed at 2174.00 and the index closed at 2176.94 – a spread of about 3.00 points; futures closed at 2172.75 for the day

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

Monthly
  • Up trend since Feb 08, 2016
Weekly:
  • Current uptrend under pressure; recent price action may relieve the pressure for uptrend to resume; closer to uptrend resumption than reversal
  • Above an up trend since Feb 08, 2016 with one pullback; broke out of a 2-year trading range in July, 2016
  • Last swing low, 1991.68, was reached on June 27, 2016
  • Broke below a small bearish ABCD pattern with a downside target near 2105.30 (100% – met), 2076.77 (138.2%), 2067.96 (150%), 2059.14 (161.8%)
  • Broken below 2015 high, which was acting as a resistance
  • Crossed above 39-week SMA after falling below it; above 89-week SMA
Daily
  • Above 100-day, 200-day, 50-day and 20-day SMA
  • Down trend line broken to the upside; at the broken line from below, may act as a resistance
  • Sequence of lower highs and lower lows broken but reverse sequence hasn’t started; high above 2182.30 will begin it
  • Price above EMA-10 since November 7; EMA-10 crossed above EMA-20
  • Finding resistance at 2179.99, the high of September 22
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • Tested the high of 2180.50 at 2:00 AM on November 10, near the high of September 22
  • Retracing since making a high of 2185.00 at 7:00 PM on November 15
  • Broken the emerging descending triangle to the upside; which is turning into a rectangle trading box
  • At 20-bar EMA from above
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Broken the emerging triangle – symmetrical or almost descending – to the upside; bouncing off the broken upper limit
  • Retracing after testing the high of November 10
  • About to breach the uptrend line from the low of 12:30 PM on November 14

Previous Session

S&P 500 16-Nov-16Major U.S. indices were range bound and mixed on Wednesday. Russell 2000 and NASDAQ Composite were up and others were down.

Dow Jones industrial Average broke its seven day winning streak. Russell extended its streak of up day to nine. It last did so on 11 March 2013. Since 2010, it has had four such occurrences and only once the streak was extended to ten days, in March 2013.

Indices are consolidation after big gains in the past few days. A break above or below the recent range will give clues for near-term move.

 

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