Morning Notes – Tuesday November 22, 2016

/ November 22, 2016

Directional Bias For The Day:

S&P 500 (2-Hourly) 21-Nov-16 7:00 AM

  • The futures are higher but below the 10:00 PM high of 2203
  • At 20-bar EMA on 30-minute chart from above
  • Reached the target of broken symmetrical triangle
  • Odds are for a positive day but staying within a range

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East were higher
  • European markets are most up – only Switzerland is down
  • Dollar index, EUR/USD, and GBP/USD are down; , USD/JPY is up
  • Commodities are mostly up – Crude, Gold, Silver and Copper are up; NatGas is down

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2194.96, 2190.17 and 2186.43
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2202.44, 2206.71, and 2214.71
  • Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2202.50, high at 3:00 AM, and break below 2196.75, the low of 8:30 PM on November 21

Pre-Open

  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 7:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +5.25, Dow down by +51.00 and NASDAQ is up by +22.50
  • On Monday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (Dec contract) closed at 2195.50 and the index closed at 2198.15 – a spread of about 2.75 points; futures closed at 2193.00 for the day

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

Monthly
  • Up trend since Feb 08, 2016
Weekly:
  • Uptrend resumed; broken above a downtrend line since August 15 high
  • Above an up trend since Feb 08, 2016 with one pullback; broke out of a 2-year trading range in July, 2016
  • Last swing low, 1991.68, was the low on June 27, 2016
  • Broke below a small bearish ABCD pattern with a downside target near 2105.30 (100% – met), 2076.77 (138.2% – came close), 2067.96 (150%), 2059.14 (161.8%)
  • Moved above 2193.81, which nullified the break below 2015 high made in early November
  • Above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
Daily
  • Above 100-day, 200-day, 50-day and 20-day SMA
  • Down trend line broken to the upside; trend line retaken on November 21
  • Sequence of higher highs and higher lows
  • Broken above the August high of 2193.81, the then all time
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • Broken above a resistance zone – 2180-to-2185; which was also the upper limit of an ascending triangle; target near 2212
  • Drifting down since 10:00 PM on November 21
  • Broke a symmetrical triangle to the upside at 2:00 PM on November 15; reached the target near 2198 – 2200
  • Above 20-bar EMA which is above 50-bar EMA
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Drifting down since 10:00 PM on November 21
  • At a 20-bar EMA from above

Previous Session

S&P 500 21-Nov-2016Major U.S. indices were positive on Monday. All except Dow Transports and NYSE Composite made all time highs. All broke out of a recent short – 3-6 days – consolidation area.

Russell 2000 extended it up-streak to 12 days. Since 1987, it did that seven times before Monday. Three of those times the streak was extended to 13 days.

 

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