Odds are for a down to sideways day; watch for break above 2267.00 for change of fortunes
Markets Around The World
Markets in the East were mixed: Tokyo and Sydney were down; Shanghai, Hong Kong, Mumbai and Seoul were up;
European markets are down
Dollar index and USD/JPY are down; GBP/USD and EUR/USD are up
Commodities are mostly up: only NatGas is down
10-yrs yield is at 2.449% down from Jan 20 close of 2.467%; 30-years is at 3.032% down from 3.046% on Jan 20
Key Levels:
Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2265.01, 2258.41 and 2254.25
Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2274.23, 2278.68 and 2282.10
Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2263.75, high at 6:00 AM and break below 2258.00, the low of 3:00 AM
Pre-Open
Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the downside – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -4.50, Dow by -28.00 and NASDAQ by -11.00
On Friday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (March contract) closed at 2266.25 and the index closed at 2271.31 – a spread of about 5.00 points; futures closed at 2266.00 for the day; the fair value is +0.25
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
Candlestick for the last week was a narrow body with longer lower shadow than upper shadow; week before it was large green candle than open in the middle of previous large bearish engulfing and closed above the highs
Break of the high of week 2-Jan, 2282.10, is critical for the continuation of the uptrend
Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016; first target is 2285.92; next 2363.14
Last swing low, 2083.79, was the low on November 4, 2016
Above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
Daily
Emerging broadening pattern since December 12
Thursday, January 19, was a bearish engulfing pattern in the middle of the broadening pattern
Above 100-day, 200-day and 50-day; at 20-day SMA
Sequence of higher highs and higher lows
Last swing low 2263.62
2-Hour (e-mini future)
Downward pressure; hugging the downtrend line from January 6 high; lower high, lower lows since 12:00 PM on Jan 6, the sequence was broken at 8:00 AM on Jan 13 with a higher high; waiting for a follow up higher low
Broke above a down-sloping flag at 10:00 AM on Jan 6; fell back into it at 8:00 Am on Jan 9; again broke above on Jan 20 but fell back in by the EOD
Flag pattern is morphing in to a broadening pattern
Another down-sloping flag emerging within the broadening pattern
Broke the uptrend line from low at 2:00 PM on Dec 30
30-Minute (e-mini future)
The emerging symmetrical triangle morphed into a horizontal channel with couple of spikes above and below
Broken above the downtrend line from the high at 9:00 AM on Jan 13
Touched the 78.6% Fib retracement of the rise from Jan 12 low of 2248.50 to Jan 13 high of 2273.50
Above slightly rising 50-bar EMA and 20-day EMA
Previous Session
U.S. indices were higher on Friday January 20. The daily range was narrow. The chart patterns also did not change materially. This was the sixth day in a row that the indices were in a narrow range and there wasn’t any change to the patterns.
DJIA is still near the lower limit of its narrow horizontal trading range and is at 20-day EMA. Russell 2000 is trying to get to its lower limit of a similar range and is below its 20-day EMA. S&P 500, NYSE Composite and Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index continue to be in the middle of their broadening pattern at the 20-0day EMA. NASDAQ Composite has moved sideways for four days.
