Odds are for a sideways to up; watch for break above 2264.25 or below 2259.50 for change of fortunes
Markets Around The World
Markets in the East were mostly up: Tokyo and Seoul were exceptions
European markets are up
Dollar index, GBP/USD and USD/JPY are up; EUR/USD is down
Commodities are mixed: gold and silver are down; crude oil, NatGas and copper are up
10-yrs yield is at 2.403% down from Jan 20 close of 2.467%; 30-years is at 2.991% down from 3.046% on Jan 20
Key Levels:
Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2257.02, 2254.25 and 2245.13
Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2271.78, 2276.96 and 2278.68
Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2264.25, high at 5:00 AM and break below 2259.50, the low of 3:30 AM
Pre-Open
Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is unchanged – at 7:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -0.50, Dow is up by +5.00 and NASDAQ is up by +2.75
On Monday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (March contract) closed at 2261.50 and the index closed at 2265.20 – a spread of about 3.75 points; futures closed at 2262.00 for the day; the fair value is +0.50
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
Candlestick for the last week was a narrow body with longer lower shadow than upper shadow; week before it was large green candle than open in the middle of previous large bearish engulfing and closed above the highs
Break of the high of week 2-Jan, 2282.10, is critical for the continuation of the uptrend
Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016; first target is 2285.92; next 2363.14
Last swing low, 2083.79, was the low on November 4, 2016
Above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
Daily
Emerging broadening pattern since December 12
Thursday, January 19, was a bearish engulfing pattern in the middle of the broadening pattern
Above 100-day, 200-day and 50-day; at 20-day SMA
Sequence of higher highs and higher lows
Last swing low 2263.62
2-Hour (e-mini future)
Downward pressure; hugging the downtrend line from January 6 high; lower high, lower lows since 12:00 PM on Jan 6, the sequence was broken at 8:00 AM on Jan 13 with a higher high; waiting for a follow up higher low
Broke above a down-sloping flag at 10:00 AM on Jan 6; fell back into it at 8:00 Am on Jan 9; again broke above on Jan 20 but fell back in by the EOD
Flag pattern is morphing in to a broadening pattern
Another down-sloping flag emerging within the broadening pattern
Broke the uptrend line from low at 2:00 PM on Dec 30
30-Minute (e-mini future)
The emerging symmetrical triangle morphed into a horizontal channel with couple of spikes above and below
Broken above the downtrend line from the high at 9:00 AM on Jan 13
Touched the 78.6% Fib retracement of the rise from Jan 12 low of 2248.50 to Jan 13 high of 2273.50
Above slightly rising 50-bar EMA and 20-day EMA
Previous Session
U.S. indices were lower on Monday January 23. The daily range continued to be narrow and the chart patterns also did not change materially. This was the seventh day in a row that the indices were in a narrow range and there wasn’t any change to the patterns.
DJIA is still near the lower limit of its narrow horizontal trading range and is at 20-day EMA. Russell 2000 is trying at its lower limit of a similar range and is below its 20-day EMA. S&P 500, NYSE Composite and Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index continue to be in the middle of their broadening pattern at the 20-0day EMA. NASDAQ Composite has moved sideways for four days.
