Morning Notes – Monday February 13, 2017

/ February 13, 2017

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • The futures are drifting higher
  • In a narrow range since midnight
  • Odds are for a sideways to an up day; watch for the break above 2318.00 or below 2313.50 for change of fortunes

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East closed higher
  • European markets are higher
  • Dollar index is down, USD/JPY, EUR/USD and GBP/USD are up
  • Commodities are mixed – crude oil, NatGas and gold are lower, silver and copper are lower
  • 10-yrs yield is closed at 2.409% on Friday, up from February 9 close of of 2.395%; 30-years closed at 3.012%, up from February 9 close of 3.011%

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2311.10, 2306.13 and 2300.99
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2319.85, 2323.61 and 2327.98
  • Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2318.00, high of 10:00 PM on February 12 and break below 2313.50, the low of 1:00 AM

Pre-Open

  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 6:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +3.00, Dow by +40.00 and NASDAQ by +3.75
  • On Friday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (March contract) closed at 2312.75 and the index closed at 2316.10 – a spread of about 3.50 points; futures closed at 2312.75 for the day; the fair value is 0.00

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

Monthly
  • Confirmed Uptrend
  • Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
Weekly:
  • Candlestick for the last week, February 10, was a green candle, larger than previous week; for the week, the index gained +0.8%
  • Up for three weeks
  • Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016; first target of 2285.92 is met; next target is near 2363.14
  • Last swing low, 2083.79, was the low on November 4, 2016
  • Above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
Daily
  • Gap-up open on Friday; made intraday and closing day highs
  • Intraday range less than 1.00% since December 29
  • Drifting higher within an up-sloping channel since December 27
  • Above 100-day, 200-day, 50-day, and 20-day SMA/EMA
  • Sequence of higher highs and higher lows
  • Last swing low 2263.62
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • Broke above a horizontal channel on February 9; 100% and extension target of 2309.00 and the 161.8% extension target of 2317.00 are met
  • Uptrend confirmed
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Confirmed uptrend
  • Drifting lower after making a high during early Asian session
  • At flattening 20-bar EMA but above rising 50-day EMA

Previous Session

U.S. indices closed higher on Friday February 10 and for the week.

S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, NASDAQ Composite, NYSE Composite and Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index made all time highs but  Dow Jones Transportation Average and Russell 2000 did not.

The intra-day price movement of S&P 500 was still less 1.00%. It continues to drift up in a narrow up-sloping channel since December 27. NASDAQ Composite is also moving up in a up-sloping channel since October 28. The height of the slop has narrowed since December 28.

Dow Jones Industrial Average stayed above the horizontal channel that it broke above recently. The 100% extension target of the pattern is near 20240.00. Dow Transportation Average and Russell 200 are nearing the upper limit of their respective horizontal channels.

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