Morning Notes – Wednesday March 1, 2017

/ March 1, 2017

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • The futures are moving higher since 2:00 AM
  • Broken above a narrow trading range that lasted from 4:00 AM to 7:00 AM
  • Odds are for an up day watch for break below 2372.50 for change of fortunes

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East were mostly higher – only Sydney was down
  • European markets are higher
  • Dollar index and USD/JPY are higher; GBP/USD and EUR/USD are lower
  • Commodities are mixed – crude oil, NatGas and copper are higher; gold and silver are lower
  • 10-yrs yield closed at 2.358% on February 28 down from February 27 close of 2.369%; 30-years closed at 2.968%, down from 2.986%

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2358.96, 2352.87 and 2339.86
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2371.54, 2376.80 and 2383.24
  • Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2375.50, high of 5:30 AM and break below 2372.50, the low of 5:00 AM

Pre-Open

  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +18.00, Dow by +172.00 and NASDAQ up +37.25
  • On Tuesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (March contract) closed at 2362.50 and the index closed at 2363.64 – a spread of about 1.50 points; futures closed at 2362.75 for the day; the fair value is -0.25

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

Monthly
  • Confirmed Uptrend
  • Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
Weekly:
  • Candlestick for the last week, Monday February 20, was a small green candle, that gapped up from previous week
  • Up for five consecutive weeks
  • Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016; first target of 2285.92 is met; next target is near 2363.14
  • Last swing low, 2083.79, was the low on November 4, 2016
  • Above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
Daily
  • A small body red candle; made lows at 12:00 PM and the moved higher for the rest of the day
  • Intraday range less than 1.00% since December 29;
  • Drifting higher within an up-sloping channel since December 27
  • Above 100-day, 200-day, 50-day, and 20-day SMA/EMA
  • Sequence of higher highs and higher lows
  • Last swing low 2263.62
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • Breaking above the uptrend channel line – line forming with three highs of February 21, 23 and 26
  • Confirmed up-trend
  • Above a rising 20-bar EMA and 50-bar EMA
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Broadening top formation petered out with a fresh move up
  • Another move higher after a sideways move making stairs pattern over the past many days
  • Above rising 20-bar EMA and flattening 50-bar EMA

Previous Session

U.S. indices closed lower on Tuesday February 28.

S&P 500 declined at session open from a trading range and made day’s low at 12:00 PM. After that it turned around and gradually rose to near the highs for the day. Dow Jones Industrial Average followed similar path. NASDAQ Composite, Russell 2000 and Dow Jones Industrial Average did not and closed near the lows for the day.

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