Morning Notes – Thursday March 2, 2017

/ March 2, 2017

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • The futures are almost unchanged
  • Futures moving sideways since the NYSE session close on March 1
  • Down from the high of 2401.00 at 2:30 PM on March 1
  • Odds are for a range bound day watch for break above 2401.00 and below 2389.50 for change of fortunes

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East were mixed – Shanghai, Hong Kong and Mumbai were down; Tokyo, Sydney and Seoul were up
  • European markets are mostly higher – except for U.K and Spain
  • Dollar index and USD/JPY are higher; GBP/USD and EUR/USD are lower
  • Commodities are mostly down – only NatGas is up
  • 10-yrs yield closed at 2.463% on March 1 up from February 28 close of 2.358%; 30-years closed at 3.071%, up from 2.968%

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2386.66, 2380.13 and 2370.63
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2404.58, 2413.21 and 2425.43
  • Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2401.00 high of 2:30 PM on March 1 and break below 2389.50, the low of 6:30 AM

Pre-Open

  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is mixed – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -0.50, Dow is up by +27.00 and NASDAQ is up +3.75
  • On Wednesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (March contract) closed at 2394.75 and the index closed at 2395.96 – a spread of about 1.25 points; futures closed at 2393.50 for the day; the fair value is +1.25

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

Monthly
  • Confirmed Uptrend
  • Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
Weekly:
  • Candlestick for the last week, Monday February 20, was a small green candle, that gapped up from previous week
  • Up for five consecutive weeks
  • Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016; first target of 2285.92 is met; next target is near 2363.14
  • Last swing low, 2083.79, was the low on November 4, 2016
  • Above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
Daily
  • Gapped up at the open; gap over previous high
  • Intraday range was still less than 1.0% but the day’s gain was +1.4%
  • Intraday range less than 1.00% since December 29;
  • Breaking out from an up-sloping channel that is n effect since December 27
  • Above 100-day, 200-day, 50-day, and 20-day SMA/EMA
  • Sequence of higher highs and higher lows
  • Last swing low 2263.62
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • Broken above the uptrend channel line – line forming with three highs of February 21, 23 and 26
  • Retracing from the high of 2401.oo reached on March 1
  • Confirmed up-trend
  • Above a rising 20-bar EMA and 50-bar EMA
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Retracing from the high of 2401.00 made at 2:30 PM on March 1
  • Another move higher after a sideways move of many hours; making stairs pattern over the past many days
  • Above rising 20-bar EMA and flattening 50-bar EMA

Previous Session

U.S. indices closed higher on Wednesday March 1.

Major indices gapped up at the open and stayed above the gap for rest of the day with a small retracement near the end of the session.

S&P 500 declined at session open from a trading range and made day’s low at 12:00 PM. After that it turned around and gradually rose to near the highs for the day. Dow Jones Industrial Average followed similar path. NASDAQ Composite, Russell 2000 and Dow Jones Industrial Average did not and closed near the lows for the day. All made highs.

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