Morning Notes – Monday March 6, 2017

/ March 6, 2017

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • The futures are lower
  • In a down trend since 2:30 PM on March 1; below a downtrend line
  • Lower high and lower lows on 30-minute timeframe
  • Odds are for a down day; watch for break above 2380.75 for change of fortunes

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East closed mostly higher – Tokyo was the only exception
  • European markets are mostly down – Spain is the only exception
  • Dollar index, USD/JPY and GBP/USD are lower; EUR/USD is higher
  • Commodities are mixed – crude oil and copper are down; NatGas, gold and silver copper are up
  • 10-yrs yield is at 2.466% down from March 3 close of 2.492%; 30-years is at 3.055%, down from 3.084%

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2375.39, 2371.54 and 2358.96
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2388.59, 2400.91 and 2405.64
  • Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2376.25 high of 6:30 AM and break below 2368.75, the low of 3:30 AM

Pre-Open

  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the downside – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -7.00, Dow by -47.00 and NASDAQ by -14.50
  • On Friday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (March contract) closed at 2381.75 and the index closed at 2383.12 – a spread of about 1.50 points; futures closed at 2381.25 for the day; the fair value is +0.50

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

Monthly
  • Confirmed Uptrend
  • Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
Weekly:
  • Candlestick for the last week, Friday March 3, was a  green candle, that closed at the middle of the range; a very small lower shadow
  • Made another all time high
  • Up for six consecutive weeks
  • Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016; first target of 2285.92 is met; next target is near 2363.14
  • Last swing low, 2083.79, was the low on November 4, 2016
  • Above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
Daily
  • A small green candle near the close of Thursday, which was a down day; small lower shadow and smaller upper shadow
  • Intraday range less than 1.00% since December 29; since February 1 only three down days, all separate
  • Breaking out from an up-sloping channel that is n effect since December 27
  • Above 100-day, 200-day, 50-day, and 20-day SMA/EMA
  • Sequence of higher highs and higher lows
  • Last swing low 2263.62
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • Drifting lower since making a high of 2301.00 at 2:00 PM on March 1; similar action to that on Friday
  • At a support from previous high; was here on Friday too though made lower lows during Asian and early European sessions
  • Broken above the uptrend channel line – line forming with three highs of February 21, 23 and 26
  • Retracing from the high of 2401.oo reached on March 1
  • Confirmed up-trend
  • Below falling 20-bar EMA nd at flattening 50-bar EMA
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Retracing from the high of 2401.00 made at 2:30 PM on March 1; lower highs and lower lows since then
  • Pre-NYSE open price action similar to that on Friday, which was unlike previous few days
  • Below flat-to-falling 20-bar EMA and 50-bar EMA

Previous Session

U.S. indices closed of the week with mostly an up day. Russell 2000 was the only exception.

For the week, the consecutive up week streak for S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite is six and for Dow Jones Industrial Average four. Russell 2000 has been down for two weeks.

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