Morning Notes – Thursday March 9, 2017

/ March 9, 2017

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • The futures are lower; drifting lower since 3:30 AM
  • Made another low at 2359.50, which was also the low made on March 8 Asian session
  • In a down trend since 2:30 PM on March 1; below a downtrend line
  • Lower high and lower lows on 30-minute timeframe
  • Odds are for a down to sideways day; watch for break above 2371.75 for change of fortunes

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East closed mostly down – Tokyo and Mumbai were up
  • European markets are mostly lower – Spain is up
  • Dollar index is down; and USD/JPY, EUR/USD and GBP/USD are higher
  • Commodities are mostly lower – NatGas is higher; crude oil, gold, silver and copper are higher
  • 10-yrs yield closed at 2.552% on March 8 up from March 7 close of 2.511%; 30-years closed at 3.146%, up from 3.110%

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2358.96, 2352.87 and 2350.70
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2375.12, 2383.89 and 2388.59
  • Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2367.50 high of 5:00 AM and break below 2359.50, the low of 8:00 PM on March 7

Pre-Open

  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the downside – at 7:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -1.75, Dow by -11.00 and NASDAQ by -1.0
  • On Wednesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (March contract) closed at 2362.50 and the index closed at 2362.98 – a spread of about 0.50 points; futures closed at 2364.00 for the day; the fair value is -1.50

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

Monthly
  • Confirmed Uptrend
  • Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
Weekly:
  • Candlestick for the last week, Friday March 3, was a  green candle, that closed at the middle of the range; a very small lower shadow
  • Made another all time high
  • Up for six consecutive weeks
  • Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016; first target of 2285.92 is met; next target is near 2363.14
  • Last swing low, 2083.79, was the low on November 4, 2016
  • Above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
Daily
  • A small red doji candle with real body below the real body on Monday;
  • Intraday range less than 1.00% since December 29;
  • Breaking out from an up-sloping channel that is n effect since December 27
  • Above 100-day, 200-day, 50-day, and 20-day SMA/EMA
  • Sequence of higher highs and higher lows
  • Last swing low 2263.62
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • Drifting lower since making a high of 2301.00 at 2:00 PM on March 1; similar pre-session action to that on Tuesday, Monday and Friday – lows made overnight and the small move up or down
  • Bouncing off near a support – lows of 2357.50 made on February 28
  • Retracing from the high of 2401.oo reached on March 1
  • Confirmed uptrend
  • Below flat-to-falling 20-bar EMA and 50-bar EMA
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Broken below a descending triangle;
  • Retracing from the high of 2401.00 made at 2:30 PM on March 1; lower highs and lower lows since then
  • Pre-NYSE open price action similar to that on Tuesday, Monday and Friday, which was unlike previous few days
  • Below falling 20-bar EMA and 50-bar EMA

Previous Session

U.S. indices closed down on Wednesday March 8. The price action was similar to that on Tuesday and Monday except the real body was bigger, which means the opening was near previous close. All major indices are down for third consecutive days except for Russell 2000, which declined for the fifth day.

Russell 2000 has been down nine eight out of last eleven days. During this time S&P 500 has been down for six days, Dow Jones Industrial Average for five days and NASADAQ Composite and Dow Jones Transportation Average were down for seven days.

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