Morning Notes – Friday March 10, 2017

/ March 10, 2017

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • The futures are higher; drifting higher since 2:00 PM on March 9
  • Down trend line since 2:30 PM on March 1 is broken
  • Broken sequence of lower high and lower lows on 30-minute timeframe
  • Odds are for an up day; watch for break below 2366.25 for change of fortunes
  • Non-Farm Payroll data will be critical too

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East closed mostly higher – Shanghai was down
  • European markets are higher
  • Dollar index, EUR/USD and USD/JPY are up; GBP/USD is lower
  • Commodities are mixed – crude oil,  NatGas and copper are higher; gold and silver are lower
  • 10-yrs yield closed at 2.598% on March 9 up from March 8 close of 2.552%; 30-years closed at 3.183%, up from 3.146%

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2354.54, 2352.87 and 2350.70
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2371.50, 2375.12 and 2383.89
  • Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2376.50 high of 6:00 AM and break below 2371.75, the low of 3:00 AM

Pre-Open

  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 7:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +5.50, Dow by +29.00 and NASDAQ by +19.50
  • On Thursday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (March contract) closed at 2364.75 and the index closed at 2364.87 – a spread of about 0.00 points; futures closed at 2366.25 for the day; the fair value is -1.50

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

Monthly
  • Confirmed Uptrend
  • Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
Weekly:
  • Candlestick for the last week, Friday March 3, was a  green candle, that closed at the middle of the range; a very small lower shadow
  • Made another all time high
  • Up for six consecutive weeks
  • Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016; first target of 2285.92 is met; next target is near 2363.14
  • Last swing low, 2083.79, was the low on November 4, 2016
  • Above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
Daily
  • A small green doji candle with small upper and lower shadow
  • Intraday range less than 1.00% since December 29;
  • Breaking out from an up-sloping channel that is n effect since December 27
  • Above 100-day, 200-day, 50-day, and 20-day SMA/EMA
  • Sequence of higher highs and higher lows
  • Last swing low 2263.62
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • Broke the downtrend line that started on March 1
  • Drifting lower since making a high of 2301.00 at 2:00 PM on March 1; similar pre-session action to that on Tuesday, Monday and Friday – lows made overnight and the small move up or down
  • Bouncing off near a support – lows of 2357.50 made on February 28
  • Retracing from the high of 2401.oo reached on March 1
  • Confirmed uptrend
  • Below flat-to-falling 20-bar EMA and 50-bar EMA
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Near a resistance level – high of March 8
  • Broken downtrend line since March 1
  • Retracing from the high of 2401.00 made at 2:30 PM on March 1; lower highs and lower lows since then
  • Pre-NYSE open price action similar to that on Tuesday, Monday and Friday, which was unlike previous few days
  • Below falling 20-bar EMA and 50-bar EMA

Previous Session

U.S. indices closed mixed on Thursday March 9. S&P 500, NASDAQ Composite, and Dow Jones Industrial Average closed higher. All made near dojis with very small upper and lower shadow. The change of direction came at 2:00 PM.

Russell 2000 and Dow Jones Transportation Average closed down, extending their losing streak. Russell 2000 has been down ten out of last twelve days. It has been down for six straight days.

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