Morning Notes – Wednesday March 15, 2017

/ March 15, 2017

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • The futures are higher;
  • Rising since 10:30 AM on March 14
  • Odds are for an up to sideways day; watch for break above 2372.00 and break below 2363.00 for change of fortunes
  • Chart patterns on daily and 2-hour timeframes are bearish; on shorter time frames patterns are bullish
  • FOMC’s two day March meeting culminates today; the statement is coming out at 2:00 PM, which will increase the volatility

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East closed mostly lower – Shanghai and Sydney closed up
  • European markets are higher
  • Dollar index and USD/JPY are lower; GBP/USD and EUR/USD are higher
  • Commodities are mostly higher – gold is down
  • 10-yrs yield closed at 2.595% on March 14 down from March 13 close of 2.608%; 30-years closed at 3.172% down from 3.192%

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2358.18, 2354.54 and 2352.87
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2368.55, 2374.42 and 2376.86
  • Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2372.00 high of 3:30 PM on March 13 and break below 2363.00, the low of 9:30 PM on March 14

Pre-Open

  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 8:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +4.75, Dow by +32.00 and NASDAQ by +8.50
  • On Tuesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (June contract) closed at 2362.50 and the index closed at 2365.45 – a spread of about +3.00 points; futures closed at 2363.00 for the day; the fair value is +0.50

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

Monthly
  • Confirmed Uptrend
  • Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
Weekly:
  • Candlestick for the last week, Friday March 10, was a  red doji candle – small body, small upper shadow and slightly larger lower shadow
  • Did not breach the high of previous week
  • Broke a streak of six consecutive positive weeks
  • Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016; first target of 2285.92 is met; next target is near 2363.14
  • Last swing low, 2083.79, was the low on November 4, 2016
  • Above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
Daily
  • Gapped down at the open which was not filled; Another small green doji candle with smaller upper shadow;
  • Intraday range less than 1.00% since December 29;
  • Breaking out from an up-sloping channel that is in effect since December 27
  • Above 100-day, 200-day, 50-day, and 20-day SMA/EMA
  • Sequence of higher highs and higher lows
  • Last swing low 2263.62
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • Price made a low at 2354.50 near the low of 2354.00 reached at 2:00 PM on Macrh9; the bounce from the low has broken above a short down trend line that started at 8:00 AM on March 10; near a resistance level
  • The break above of a down trend line that started on March 1 is in danger of reversing; price falling without making a single higher high; need a break above 2376.25 for that; a break below 2359.00 will resume the short term downtrend
  • General drift lower since making a high of 2301.00 at 2:00 PM on March 1
  • Uptrend is under pressure
  • At flattening 20-bar EMA and 50-bar EMA
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Broke below a horizontal channel and reached the 100% extension target ; now bouncing form the lows and nearing the upper limit of the channel
  • March 10 high was slightly above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the decline from 2401.00 on March 1 to the low of 2354.00 on March 9; the 61.8% retracement level is near 2382.25
  • Pre-NYSE open price action is range bound since 6:30 PM on March 1e
  • Above flat 20-bar EMA and 50-bar EMA

Previous Session

U.S. indices closed lower on Tuesday March 14. S&P 500 gapped down at the open and then declined more before bottoming at 10:30 AM. Then it traded in a narrow range but with an up bias. It closed off the lows but did not fill the gap. Other indices followed similar price pattern.

S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average are carving out a down sloping flag. NASDAQ is making a shallower flag and Russell 2000 and Dow Jones Transportation Average are nearing the lower bound of their respective horizontal channel from which they tried toe break above in mid-February before falling back in early March.

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