Morning Notes – Friday March 17, 2017

/ March 17, 2017

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • The futures are drifting higher;
  • Moving, mostly, sideways since 10:30 AM on March 16 – between 2380.75 and 2373.50
  • Odds are for a sideways day; watch for break above 2380.75 and below 2375.50 for change of fortunes
  • Key economic report: Industrial Production and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East closed mostly higher – Shanghai and Tokyo closed down
  • European markets are mostly higher – Italy is lower
  • Dollar index, USD/JPY, GBP/USD and EUR/USD are lower
  • Commodities are higher
  • 10-yrs yield closed at 2.522% on March 16 up from March 15 close of 2.508%; 30-years closed at 3.135% up from 3.106%

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2377.18, 2368.94 and 2358.18
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2383.47, 2390.01 and 2400.91
  • Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2380.75 high of 4:30 PM on March 15 and break below 2375.50, the low of 4:30 AM

Pre-Open

  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 8:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +1.00, Dow by +25.00 and NASDAQ by +6.75
  • On Thursday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (June contract) closed at 2377.75 and the index closed at 2381.38 – a spread of about +3.75 points; futures closed at 2379.00 for the day; the fair value is -1.25

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

Monthly
  • Confirmed Uptrend
  • Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
Weekly:
  • Candlestick for the last week, Friday March 10, was a  red doji candle – small body, small upper shadow and slightly larger lower shadow
  • Did not breach the high of previous week
  • Broke a streak of six consecutive positive weeks
  • Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016; first target of 2285.92 is met; next target is near 2363.14
  • Last swing low, 2083.79, was the low on November 4, 2016
  • Above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
Daily
  • A small red-harami candle within a large green candle; small lower shadow and smaller upper shadow
  • Still below the high of the flag pole
  • Intraday range was 0.9%; less than 1.00% since December 29;
  • Breaking out from an up-sloping channel that is in effect since December 27
  • Above 100-day, 200-day, 50-day, and 20-day SMA/EMA
  • Sequence of higher highs and higher lows
  • Last swing low 2263.62
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • Generally drifting lower after the high made at 2:00 AM on March 16;
  • Sideways move since 12:00 PM on March 16
  • Upswing since 10:00 AM on March 14
  • Uptrend is under pressure
  • Above flat-to-rising 20-bar EMA and 50-bar EMA
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Sideways move since 10:30 AM on March 16; between high of 2380.75 and low of 2373.50
  • Up trend since 10:30 Am on March 14; higher highs and higher lows;
  • Nearing 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the decline from 2401.00 on March 1 to the low of 2354.00 on March 9; the 61.8% retracement level is near 2382.25
  • Above rising 20-bar EMA and 50-bar EMA

Previous Session

U.S. indices closed mixed on Thursday March 16. S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Dow Jones Transportation Average declined. NASDAQ Composite and Russell 2000 gained.

 

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