Directional Bias For The Day:
The futures are flat- Moving sideways since Friday’s close
- Odds are for a sideways to down day; watch for break above 2366.75 and below 2356.00 for change of fortunes
- On Friday, S&P 500 made a near gravestone doji candlestick pattern; a break below its low will be critical
- Key economic data: ISM Manufacturing (estimate is 57.2) and construction spending (est. 1.00%) at 10:00 AM
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East were mostly higher – Shanghai was closed
- European markets are mixed – Germany, U.K. and Switzerland are up; France, Spain, Italy and STOXX 600 are down
- Dollar index and EUR/USD are higher; USD/JPY and GBP/USD are lower;
- Commodities are mostly down – crude oil is up and NatGas is unchanged; gold, silver and copper are lower
- 10-yrs yield is at 2.386% down from March 31 close of 2.396%; 30-years is at 3.020% up from 3.018%
Key Levels:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2362.62, 2357.27 and 2352.14
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2370.42, 2381.93 and 2385.71
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2366.75, high of 1:30 PM on March 31 and break below 2356.00, the low of 8:00 PM on April 2
Pre-Open
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is almost unchanged – at 9:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +0.25, Dow is up by +12.00, NASDAQ is up by +5.00
- On Friday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (June contract) closed at 2358.50 and the index closed at 2362.72 – a spread of about +4.25 points; futures closed at 2359.25 for the day; the fair value is -0.75
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
| Monthly |
- Confirmed Uptrend
- Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
|
| Weekly: |
- Candlestick for the last week, Friday March 24, was a large green candle that made a piercing pattern closing higher than the mid-point of previous week’s bearish engulfing, which had broken below the four-week lows
- An up week – eight in last ten weeks
- Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016; first target of 2285.92 and second target of 2363.14 are achieved
- Last swing low, 2083.79, was the low on November 4, 2016
- Above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
|
| Daily |
- A near gravestone doji with very small upper shadow and no lower shadow
- Break below Thursday’s low of 2358.58 will be critical
- Broke a sequence of higher highs and higher lows on March 21; broke below an uptrend line since November lows
- Uptrend under pressure; break above March 16 high of 2388.10 is critical for uptrend
- Broke below a descending triangle on March 21; target near 2308.00 still active; rise above 2381.93 will nullify it
- Move above an up-sloping channel since December 27 still relevant
- Above 100-day, 200-day and 50-day SMA/EMA; above 20-day EMA
- Last swing low 2263.62
|
| 2-Hour (e-mini future) |
- Facing resistance – prior support – at 2365.50; made two touches to 2366.75 – 10:00 AM on march 30 and 12:00 PM on March 31 – a break below 2356.00 will complete the pattern with 100% extension target near 2346.00
- Broke above a double top – at 2:00 PM and 8:00 PM on March 29 – On march 30 but did not reached 61.8% of the target;
- Uptrend broken; sequence of lower highs and lower lows with one exception
- Above rising 50-bar EMA; at flattening 20-bar EMA
|
| 30-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Drifting sideways since Friday close – bounded between 2356.00 and 2363.25
- Down trend since 3:30 AM on March 16; sequence of lower lows and lower highs broken; within this downtrend – an uptrend from the lows of 2318.00 at 9:30 AM on March 27
- At flattening 50-bar EMA and 20-bar EMA
|
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices closed mostly lower on Friday March 31. Russell 2000 was the only one to advance. For the week major indices were up.
Major U.S. indices closed mostly lower on Friday March 31. Russell 2000 was the only one to advance. For the week major indices were up.
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