Directional Bias For The Day:
The futures are higher- Moving higher since 3:30 AM
- Broke above April 4 high
- Odds are for an up day but strong resistance at 2366.75 level
- Key economic data: ADP (+263K – better) at 8:15 AM; Non-Mfg. ISM (est. 57) at 10:00 AM and FOMC meeting minutes at 2:00 PM
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East closed mostly higher – Seoul was the only exception
- European markets are mostly higher – Germany and Switzerland are down
- Dollar index, USD/JPY and GBP/USD are higher; EUR/USD is lower
- Commodities are mixed – crude oil and copper are up; gold, silver and NatGas are lower
- 10-yrs yield is at 2.373% up from April 4 close of 2.350%; 30-years is at 3.011% up from 2.993%
Key Levels:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2350.72, 2344.73 and 2336.21
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2370.42, 2381.93 and 2385.71
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2363.25, the high of 2:00 AM on April 3 and break below 2353.25, the low of 7:00 AM
Pre-Open
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 8:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +4.50, Dow by +55.00 and NASDAQ by +2.00
- On Tuesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (June contract) closed at 2356.25 and the index closed at 2360.16 – a spread of about 4.00 points; futures closed at 2356.00 for the day; the fair value is -0.25
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
| Monthly |
- Confirmed Uptrend
- Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
|
| Weekly: |
- Candlestick for the last week, Friday March 24, was a large green candle that made a piercing pattern closing higher than the mid-point of previous week’s bearish engulfing, which had broken below the four-week lows
- An up week – eight in last ten weeks
- Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016; first target of 2285.92 and second target of 2363.14 are achieved
- Last swing low, 2083.79, was the low on November 4, 2016
- Above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
|
| Daily |
- A small body with small shadows near the real body of Monday’s near doji; indicating mostly indecision
- Broke a sequence of higher highs and higher lows on March 21; broke below an uptrend line since November lows
- Uptrend under pressure; break above March 16 high of 2388.10 is critical for uptrend
- Broke below a descending triangle on March 21; target near 2308.00 still active; rise above 2381.93 will nullify it
- Move above an up-sloping channel since December 27 still relevant
- Above 100-day, 200-day and 50-day SMA/EMA; at 20-day EMA
- Last swing low 2263.62
|
| 2-Hour (e-mini future) |
- Moving higher since 12:00 PM low on April 3; higher highs and higher low since then; next resistance near 2366.75
- Broke below the immediate low of the double top – two touches to 2366.75 – 10:00 AM on march 30 and 12:00 PM on March 31; the 100% extension target met;
- Broke above a double top – at 2:00 PM and 8:00 PM on March 29 – On march 30 but did not reached 61.8% of the target;
- Uptrend broken; sequence of lower highs and lower lows with one exception
- Above rising 50-bar EMA; at flattening 20-bar EMA
|
| 30-Minute (e-mini future) |
- A zig-zag pattern up since 12:00 PM low on April 3; breaking above April 3 highs
- Down trend since 3:30 AM on March 16; sequence of lower lows and lower highs broken; within this downtrend – an uptrend from the lows of 2318.00 at 9:30 AM on March 27
- Below falling 50-bar EMA and 20-bar EMA
|
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices closed mostly higher on Tuesday April 4. Russell 2000 was the only one to decline. S&P 500 opened at the low end of the day and then mostly moved higher. Other indices followed the similar pattern.
Major U.S. indices closed mostly higher on Tuesday April 4. Russell 2000 was the only one to decline. S&P 500 opened at the low end of the day and then mostly moved higher. Other indices followed the similar pattern.
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