Odds are for an up day but strong resistance at 2366.75 level
Key economic data: ADP (+263K – better) at 8:15 AM; Non-Mfg. ISM (est. 57) at 10:00 AM and FOMC meeting minutes at 2:00 PM
Markets Around The World
Markets in the East closed mostly higher – Seoul was the only exception
European markets are mostly higher – Germany and Switzerland are down
Dollar index, USD/JPY and GBP/USD are higher; EUR/USD is lower
Commodities are mixed – crude oil and copper are up; gold, silver and NatGas are lower
10-yrs yield is at 2.373% up from April 4 close of 2.350%; 30-years is at 3.011% up from 2.993%
Key Levels:
Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2350.72, 2344.73 and 2336.21
Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2370.42, 2381.93 and 2385.71
Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2363.25, the high of 2:00 AM on April 3 and break below 2353.25, the low of 7:00 AM
Pre-Open
Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 8:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +4.50, Dow by +55.00 and NASDAQ by +2.00
On Tuesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (June contract) closed at 2356.25 and the index closed at 2360.16 – a spread of about 4.00 points; futures closed at 2356.00 for the day; the fair value is -0.25
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
Candlestick for the last week, Friday March 24, was a large green candle that made a piercing pattern closing higher than the mid-point of previous week’s bearish engulfing, which had broken below the four-week lows
An up week – eight in last ten weeks
Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016; first target of 2285.92 and second target of 2363.14 are achieved
Last swing low, 2083.79, was the low on November 4, 2016
Above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
Daily
A small body with small shadows near the real body of Monday’s near doji; indicating mostly indecision
Broke a sequence of higher highs and higher lows on March 21; broke below an uptrend line since November lows
Uptrend under pressure; break above March 16 high of 2388.10 is critical for uptrend
Broke below a descending triangle on March 21; target near 2308.00 still active; rise above 2381.93 will nullify it
Move above an up-sloping channel since December 27 still relevant
Above 100-day, 200-day and 50-day SMA/EMA; at 20-day EMA
Last swing low 2263.62
2-Hour (e-mini future)
Moving higher since 12:00 PM low on April 3; higher highs and higher low since then; next resistance near 2366.75
Broke below the immediate low of the double top – two touches to 2366.75 – 10:00 AM on march 30 and 12:00 PM on March 31; the 100% extension target met;
Broke above a double top – at 2:00 PM and 8:00 PM on March 29 – On march 30 but did not reached 61.8% of the target;
Uptrend broken; sequence of lower highs and lower lows with one exception
Above rising 50-bar EMA; at flattening 20-bar EMA
30-Minute (e-mini future)
A zig-zag pattern up since 12:00 PM low on April 3; breaking above April 3 highs
Down trend since 3:30 AM on March 16; sequence of lower lows and lower highs broken; within this downtrend – an uptrend from the lows of 2318.00 at 9:30 AM on March 27
Below falling 50-bar EMA and 20-bar EMA
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices closed mostly higher on Tuesday April 4. Russell 2000 was the only one to decline. S&P 500 opened at the low end of the day and then mostly moved higher. Other indices followed the similar pattern.
