Morning Notes - Wednesday April 12, 2017 : Market Remarks

Directional Bias For The Day:

The futures are down
Drifting lower since 3:30 AM high of 2356.50; given up all gains of Asian session
Previous day the index made a dragonfly doji, a slightly bullish pattern
Odds are for a sideways to down day; watch for break above 2356.50 and below 2345.50 for change of fortunes
Key economic data: Import prices (-0.2% vs. -0.3% est.) at 8:30 AM

Markets Around The World

Markets in the East closed mixed – Shanghai, Tokyo and Mumbai closed down; Hong Kong, Sydney and Seoul closed up
European markets are mixed – Germany, France, Switzerland and STOXX 600 are higher; U.K., Spain and Italy are lower
Dollar index and GBP/USD are almost unchanged; USD/JPY and EUR/USD are lower
Commodities are mixed – crude oil, gold and silver are up; NatGas and copper are lower
10-yrs yield is at 2.289% down from April 11 close of 2.293%; 30-years is at 2.925% down from 2.929%

Key Levels:

Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2346.33, 2337.25 and 2322.25
Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2355.22, 2363.47 and 2366.37
Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2356.50, the high of 3:30 AM and break below 2345.50, the low of 9:00 PM on April 11

Pre-Open

Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the downside – at 9:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -4.00, Dow by -21.00 and NASDAQ by -8.50
On Tuesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (June contract) closed at 2350.25 and the index closed at 2353.78 – a spread of about 3.50 points; futures closed at 2352.50 for the day; the fair value is -2.25

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

Monthly	Confirmed Uptrend Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
Weekly:	Candlestick for the last week, Friday April 7, was a small red candle, a harami with open and close within the body of previous large green candle A down week – third in last ten weeks Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016; first target of 2285.92 and second target of 2363.14 are achieved Last swing low, 2083.79, was the low on November 4, 2016 Above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA Confirmed uptrend, though pulling back
*Daily*	A dragonfly doji with a very small upper shadow Broke a sequence of higher highs and higher lows on March 21; broke below an uptrend line since November lows Uptrend under pressure; break above March 16 high of 2388.10 is critical for uptrend Broke below a descending triangle on March 21; target near 2308.00 still active; rise above 2381.93 will nullify it Move above an up-sloping channel since December 27 still relevant Above 100-day, 200-day and 50-day SMA/EMA; at 20-day EMA Last swing low 2263.62
*2-Hour (e-mini future)*	April 11 10:00 AM candle made a low and formed a TCLOS pattern – a short term bullish pattern; from the low of 2333.25 15 10:00 AM the futures rose to a high of 2356.50 by 2:00 AM on April 12; drifting lower since then Sideways move since 2:00 PM on April 5 Below flat 50-bar EMA and 20-bar EMA
*30-Minute (e-mini future)*	Drifting lower after making a high of 2356.50 at 2:00 AM; given up all gains during the Asian session; now at the lows of 9:00 AM on April 11 Sideways move since 3:00 AM on April 5; trading between 2361.25 and 2336.75 Below flat 20-bar EMA and 50-bar EMA

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed mixed on Tuesday April 11. S&P 500 started the day in red and made day’s low in the first hour of trading. After that it generally moved higher closing near the open and made a near dragonfly doji. Russell 2000 and NYSE Composite closed up for the day.