Morning Notes – Tuesday April 25, 2017

/ April 25, 2017

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • Futures are higher
  • Drifting higher since 11:30 AM on Monday
  • Good chance of following through on Monday’s gap-up open
  • Odds are for an up day; watch for break below 2371.50 for change of fortunes
  • Key Economic Data: S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI (5.9% vs. 5.7% est.) at 9:00 AM and CB Consumer confidence and New Home Sales at 10:00 AM

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East were up – Sydney was closed for the day
  • European markets are higher
  • Dollar index is down ; USD/JPY, GBP/USD and EUR/USD are up
  • Commodities are mostly down – copper is up
  • 10-yrs yield is at 2.298% up from April 24 close of 2.273%; 30-years is at 2.951% up from 2.927%

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2369.19, 2361.37 and 2347.99
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2378.36, 2390.01 and 2400.98
  • Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2376.75, the high of 6:00 AM on Monday and break below 2371.50, the low of 3:30 AM

Pre-Open

  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 9:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +7.75, Dow by +153.00 and NASDAQ by +18.25
  • On Monday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (June contract) closed at 2370.75 and the index closed at 2374.15 – a spread of about 3.50 points; futures closed at 2370.00 for the day; the fair value is +0.75

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

Monthly
  • Confirmed Uptrend
  • Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
Weekly:
  • Candlestick for the last week, Friday April 21, was a  small green candle, a harami with open and close within the body of previous large red candle
  • An up week – second in in last five weeks; sixth in last ten weeks
  • Forming a small down-sloping flag; break above 2378.36 will be bullish
  • Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016; first target of 2285.92 and second target of 2363.14 are achieved
  • Last swing low, 2083.79, was the low on November 4, 2016
  • Above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
  • Confirmed uptrend, though pulling back
Daily
  • Gapped up at the open; gap was not filled; a small doji candle;
  • Broke above a down sloping flag; break above 2378.36 will be bullish; flag-pole high is 2400.98; the target will be near 2650
  • Uptrend under pressure; break above April 5 high of 2378.36 is critical for uptrend
  • Broke below a descending triangle on March 21; target near 2308.00 still active;  rise above 2381.93 will nullify it
  • Move above an up-sloping channel since December 27 still relevant
  • Above 100-day, 200-day, 50-day SMA/EMA and 20-day EMA
  • Last swing low 2263.62
  • Uptrend under pressure
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • Breaking above a resistance at 2375.00 after finding support at 2365.50 following the gap up at the Sunday open
  • The horizontal channel break target is near 2385.00, which is near the target from 30-minute pattern break
  • Uptrend since 8:00 PM on April 16; higher highs and higher lows
  • Within a range since March 21 – high 2378.75 and the low of 2327.25
  • Above rising 50-bar EMA and 20-bar EMA
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Broke above a symmetrical triangle at 8:00 AM; the target is near 2385.75
  • Broke above an ascending triangle at 6:00 PM on Sunday April 23; triangle height is 33.75 points and the break out point is 2356.50, giving a 100% extension target near 2390.00
  • Above rising 20-bar EMA and 50-bar EMA

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices gapped up at the open on Monday April 24 and stayed higher throughout the day. S&P 500 gained +25.46 but the total range during the NYSE session was only 7.79.

S&P 500 broke above a small down sloping flag, which is bullish in nature. Next resistances are at 2378.36 and 2400.98. The target of this patterns is near 2650.00, which is nearly 12% away. Dow Jones Industrial Average broke above a similar looking flag and its target is near 23450, which is near 13% away.

NASDAQ Composite broke above an ascending triangle. Its 100% extension target is near 6086.73. The bigger pattern target is near 6662, which is nearly 11% away from current levels.

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