Morning Notes – Wednesday April 26, 2017

/ April 26, 2017

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • Futures are unchanged
  • Trading within a narrow range since 10:00 AM o April 25
  • Odds are for a range bound day with slight bias to the downside watch for break above 2389.25 and below 2382.25 for change of fortunes
  • No key economic data to be released today

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East closed higher
  • European markets are mixed: Germany, U.K., Spain and Italy are down; France, Switzerland and STOXX 600 are up
  • Dollar index and USD/JPY are higher; GBP/USD and EUR/USD are lower
  • Commodities are mixed: crude oil, gold and silver are down; NatGas and copper are higher
  • 10-yrs yield is at 2.347% up from April 25 close of 2.327%; 30-years is at 3.001% up from 2.979%

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2381.15, 2376.17 and 2369.19
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2393.68, 2398.74 and 2400.98
  • Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2386.75, the high of 6:00 AM, and break below 2382.25, the low of 7:30 AM

Pre-Open

  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is almost unchanged – at 9:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were unchanged, Dow is up by +1.00 and NASDAQ is up by +3.00
  • On Tuesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (June contract) closed at 2385.00 and the index closed at 2388.61 – a spread of about 3.75 points; futures closed at 2385.00 for the day; the fair value is +0.00

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

Monthly
  • Confirmed Uptrend
  • Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
Weekly:
  • Candlestick for the last week, Friday April 21, was a  small green candle, a harami with open and close within the body of previous large red candle
  • An up week – second in in last five weeks; sixth in last ten weeks
  • Forming a small down-sloping flag; break above 2378.36 will be bullish
  • Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016; first target of 2285.92 and second target of 2363.14 are achieved
  • Last swing low, 2083.79, was the low on November 4, 2016
  • Above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
  • Confirmed uptrend, though pulling back
Daily
  • Another gap up open following Monday’s gap up open; both gaps did not fill
  • Broke above a down sloping flag; break above 2378.36 will be bullish; flag-pole high is 2400.98; the target will be near 2650
  • Uptrend under pressure; break above April 5 high of 2378.36 is critical for uptrend
  • Move above an up-sloping channel since December 27 still relevant
  • Above 100-day, 200-day, 50-day SMA/EMA and 20-day EMA
  • Last swing low 2263.62
  • Uptrend under pressure
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • Within a narrow range since 10:00 AM on April 25 – high 2389.25 and low 2382.25
  • The horizontal channel break target, near 2385.00, was achieved
  • Uptrend since 8:00 PM on April 16; higher highs and higher lows
  • Within a range since March 21 – high 2378.75 and the low of 2327.25
  • Above rising 50-bar EMA and 20-bar EMA
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Within a narrow range since 10:00 AM on April 25
  • Achieved the target of a broken symmetrical triangle at 8:00 AM;
  • Achieved the target of the broken ascending triangle at 6:00 PM on Sunday April 23; triangle height is 33.75 points and the break out point is 2356.50, giving a 100% extension target near 2390.00
  • Above rising 50-bar EMA; at 20-bar EMA

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices followed Monday’s gap up open with another gap up open on Tuesday, April 25, and stayed higher throughout the day.

S&P 500 and Do Jones Industrial Average are above their respective bullish flag but below all time highs. NASDAQ Composite and Russell 2000 made all time highs but only NASDAQ closed at all time high. Dow Jones Transportation Average broke above a double bottom pattern and the 100% extension target is near 9600.

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