Directional Bias For The Day:
Futures are higher- Moving up since 10:30 AM on May 3; at the upper limit of a horizontal channel on 30-minute chart
- Odds are for an up day; watch for break below above 2384.75 for change of fortunes
- Key economic data:
- Unemployment claims – at 8:30 AM
- Prelim Nonfarm Productivity and Prelim Labor Cost – at 10:00 AM
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East were mixed – Shanghai, Hong Kong and Sydney were lower; Mumbai and Seoul were higher; Tokyo was closed
- European markets are higher
- Dollar index is down; USD/JPY, GBP/USD and EUR/USD are higher
- Commodities are lower
- 10-yrs yield closed at 2.309% on May 3 up from May 2 close of 2.296%; 30-years closed at 2.955% down from 2.982%
Key Levels:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2379.75, 2376.17 and 2369.19
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2394.49, 2398.16 and 2400.98
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2390.25, the high of 2:00 PM on May 1, and break below 2384.75, the low of 3:00 AM
Pre-Open
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the up side – at 7:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +6.75; Dow up by +59.00; and NASDAQ by +20.25
- On Wednesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (June contract) closed at 2383.50 and the index closed at 2388.25 – a spread of about 4.75 points; futures closed at 2383.25 for the day; the fair value is -0.25
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
| Monthly |
- Confirmed Uptrend
- Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
|
| Weekly: |
- Candlestick for the last week, Friday April 28, was a green candle, with no lower shadow and a up gap from previous week;
- An up week – third in in last five weeks; sixth in last ten weeks
- Broke above a down sloping flag (2378.36), which has bullish implications;
- Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016; first target of 2285.92 and second target of 2363.14 are achieved
- Last swing low, 2083.79, was the low on November 4, 2016
- Above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
- Confirmed uptrend, though pulling back
|
Daily
|
- A near doji candle with a longer lower shadow; break above 2389.82 will be bullish, break below 2382.36 bearish
- Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24; broke above 2378.36, which is bullish; found resistance at flag-pole high of 2400.98; the target will be near 2650
- Move above an up-sloping channel since December 27 still relevant
- Above 100-day, 200-day, 50-day SMA/EMA and 20-day EMA
- Last swing low 2263.62
- Uptrend under pressure
|
| 2-Hour (e-mini future) |
- Drifting higher since 10:00 AM on May 3; big green candle at 4:00 AM, European session open
- Within a narrow range since 10:00 AM on April 25 – high 2389.25 and low 2382.25;
- Breaking above a descending triangle; hugging the upper limit since 8:00 AM on May 1; a break above 2388.50 is critical for up move; lower limit break is near 2377.00
- Uptrend since 8:00 PM on April 16; higher highs and higher lows
- Above rising 50-bar EMA and rising 20-bar EMA
|
| 30-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Moving up since 10:30 AM on May 2
- At the upper limit of a horizontal channel – high 2388.75 and low 2375.50 – target neat 2401.00
- Within a narrow range since 4:00 AM on April 26 – high 2386.50 and low 2381.25
- The descending triangle on 2-hour time frame is more like a down sloping flag on 30-minute; a break above 2388.50 will complete the flag break
- Above rising 50-bar EMA and rising 20-bar EMA
|
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices closed mostly lower on Wednesday May 3. Dow Jones Industrial Average was an exception. Most indices made a doji or near-doji pattern. S&P 500, NYSE Composite and Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index had larger lower shadows.
Major U.S. indices closed mostly lower on Wednesday May 3. Dow Jones Industrial Average was an exception. Most indices made a doji or near-doji pattern. S&P 500, NYSE Composite and Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index had larger lower shadows.
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