Directional Bias For The Day:
Futures are higher- Generally moving up since 10:30 AM on May 11; small rounding bottom pattern since Monday’s high
- Odds are for an up day; watch for break below 2397.00 for change of fortunes
- Key Economic data:
- Building Permits (1.23M vs. 1.27M est.); Housing Starts (1.17M vs. 1.26M) at 8:30 AM
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East were mostly positive – Hong Kong closed down
- European markets are mostly up – France is lower
- Dollar index and USD/JPY are down; GBP/USD and EUR/USD are up
- Commodities are mostly higher – NatGas is down
- 10-yrs yield is at 2.342% up from May 15 close of 2.338%; 30-years is at 3.004% up from 3.006%
Key Levels:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2399.28, 2393.94 and 2387.19
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2406.27, 2410.21 and 2416.38
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2402.25, the high of 11:00 AM on May 15 and break below 2397.00, the low of 4:30 AM
Pre-Open
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the up side – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +2.25; Dow by +34.00; and NASDAQ by +7.25
- On Monday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (June contract) closed at 2400.25 and the index closed at 2402.32 – a spread of about 2.00 points; futures closed at 2398.50 for the day; the fair value is +1.75
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
| Monthly |
- Confirmed Uptrend
- Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
|
| Weekly: |
- Candlestick for the last week, Friday May 12, was a red bearish engulfing candle, with small upper and lower shadows; pivot point 2392.17; R1=2302.60, R2=2414.30; S1=2380.47, S2=2370.04
- A down week – second in last five weeks; fifth in last ten weeks
- Broke above a down sloping flag (2378.36), which has bullish implications;
- Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016; first target of 2285.92 and second target of 2363.14 are achieved
- Last swing low, 2083.79, was the low on November 4, 2016
- Above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
- Confirmed uptrend, though pulling back
|
Daily
|
- A relatively large green candle that opened above the Friday’s near doji candle with small upper and lower shadows, which was within the lower shadow of Thursday
- Breaking above a small down-sloping flag that it tried to break above on May 5, after falling back into it
- Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24; broke above 2378.36, which is bullish; found resistance at flag-pole high of 2400.98; the target will be near 2650.00
- Move above an up-sloping channel since December 27 still relevant
- Above 100-day, 200-day, 50-day SMA/EMA and 20-day EMA
- Last swing low 2263.62
- Uptrend under pressure
|
| 2-Hour (e-mini future) |
- Broken above a down-sloping flag that was emerging since 6:00 PM on May 7;
- Uptrend since 10:00 AM on May 11; higher highs and higher lows;
- Need to rise above 2403.75 to resume the previous uptrend since 8:00 PM on April 16; mostly moving sideways since April 25
- Above recently rising 50-bar EMA and 20-bar EMA
|
| 30-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Up trend since 10:30 om May 11; higher highs and higher lows
- Sideways move since 11:00 AM on May 15, slight rounding bottom; break above 2402.25 will resume the recent uptrend
- Above rising 50-bar EMA and 20-bar EMA
|
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices closed higher on Monday May 15. The indices had almost no lower shadow and small upper shadow. S&P 500 broke above a vey small down-sloping flag, following through on the break above another flag on May 5.
Major U.S. indices closed higher on Monday May 15. The indices had almost no lower shadow and small upper shadow. S&P 500 broke above a vey small down-sloping flag, following through on the break above another flag on May 5.
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