Morning Notes – Monday May 22, 2017

/ May 22, 2017

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • Futures are higher
  • Moving sideways since Friday’s close on 30-minute chart
  • Odds are for an up day; watch for break below 2378.25 for change of fortunes
  • No Key economic data to be released

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East were mostly higher – Shanghai was lower
  • European markets are mostly lower – U.K. and Switzerland are higher; Germany, France, Italy, Spain and STOXX 600 are lower
  • Dollar index, GBP/USD and USD/JPY are down; EUR/USD is up
  • Commodities are higher
  • 10-yrs yield closed at 2.245% on May 19 up from May 18 close of 2.233%; 30-years closed at 2.905% unchanged

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2365.22, 2358.39 and 2352.72
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2389.06, 2396.05 and 2405.77
  • Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2388.00, the high of 2:30 PM on May 19 and break below 2378.25, the low of 5:30 AM

Pre-Open

  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the up side – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +2.25; Dow by +33.00; and NASDAQ by +7.50
  • On Friday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (June contract) closed at 2380.00 and the index closed at 2381.73 – a spread of about 1.75 points; futures closed at 2381.50 for the day; the fair value is -1.50

Directional Bias Before Open

  • Weekly: Up
  • Daily: Side
  • 120-Min: Up
  • 30-Min: Up

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

Monthly
  • Confirmed Uptrend
  • Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
Weekly:
  • Candlestick for the last week, Friday May 19, was a red candle with longer lower shadow than upper shadow
  • Last week’s pivot point 2382.38; R1=2412.03, R2=2435.43; S1=2358.98, S2=2329.33
  • A down week – second in last five weeks; fifth in last ten weeks
  • Broke above a down sloping flag (2378.36), which has bullish implications;
  • Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016; first target of 2285.92 and second target of 2363.14 are achieved
  • Last swing low, 2083.79, was the low on November 4, 2016
  • Above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
  • Confirmed uptrend, though pulling back
Daily
  • Gapped up at the open on Friday and then closed higher; recovered close to two third of Wednesday’s decline
  • Formed a double top – March 1 high of 2400.98 and May 16 high of 2405.77; the intermediate low is 2322.25; a break below it will have a target near 2240.00 level
  • Falling back within the down sloping flag that it broke above on April 24; break below 2328.95 will nullify the pattern
  • Move above an up-sloping channel since December 27 still relevant
  • At 20-day and 50-day EMA; above 100-day and 200-day
  • Last swing low 2263.62
  • Uptrend under pressure
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • Moving sideways since 2:00 PM on May 19;
  • Higher highs and higher lows since 4:00 AM on May 18; downtrend since 8:00 AM on May 16 – lower highs, lower lows – may be in danger of reversing
  • Filled the gap up open of April 23
  • Uptrend since 10:00 AM on May 11 is broken
  • Above flattening 20-bar EMA and 50-bar EMA
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Forming short-term double bottom at 2378.00 – lows at :30 PM on May 19 and 5:30 AM on May 22
  • Sideways moves since 3:00 PM on May 19
  • Above rising 50-bar EMA; just below 20-bar EMA

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed higher on Friday May 19, recovering closed to two third of their decline on Wednesday.

The intraday high S&P 500, NYSE Composite and Wilshire 5000 Total Market index was higher than the highs of Thursday. Dow Jones Industrial Average and NASDAQ Composite made highs close to Thursday’s highs.

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