Morning Notes – Monday June 12, 2017

/ June 12, 2017

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • Futures are lower
  • Moving lower since 4:00 PM on June 9
  • Odds are for a down day; watch for break above 2428.25 for change of fortunes
  • No Key economic data

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East closed lower – Sydney is closed
  • European markets are lower
  • Dollar index, USD/JPY and GBP/USD are down; EUR/USD is up
  • Commodities are mixed – crude oil and NatGas are higher; gold, s1lver and copper are lower
  • 10-yrs yield is at 2.213% up from June 9 close of 2.199%; 30-years is at 2.863% up from 2.854%

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2415.70, 2403.59 and 2397.99
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2431.80, 2440.01 and 2446.20
  • Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2428.50, the high of 3:00 AM and break below 2422.00, the low of 5:30 AM

Pre-Open

  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the downside – at 7:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -7.50; Dow by -30.00; and NASDAQ is down by -49.50
  • On Friday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (June contract) closed at 2430.00 and the index closed at 2431.77 – a spread of about 1.75 points; futures closed at 2428.25 for the day; the fair value is +1.75

Directional Bias Before Open

  • Weekly: Up
  • Daily: Up
  • 120-Min: Side
  • 30-Min: Down

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

Monthly
  • Confirmed Uptrend
  • Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
Weekly:
  • Candlestick for the last week, Friday June 9 was an almost doji with smaller upper shadow
  • Last week’s pivot point 2429.90; R1=2444.10, R2=2460.40; S1=2413.60, S2=2399.40
  • A down week – third in last five weeks; fifth in last ten weeks
  • Broke above a down sloping flag (2378.36), which has bullish implications;
  • Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016; first target of 2285.92 and second target of 2363.14 are achieved
  • Last swing low, 2083.79, was the low on November 4, 2016
  • Above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
  • Confirmed uptrend, though pulling back
Daily
  • A near red doji candle with relatively longer upper and lower shadows compared to last few days
  • Above a horizontal channel – high 2400.58 and low 2322.25 – 100% extension target near 2480.00
  • Above 20-day and 50-day EMA; above 100-day and 200-day
  • Last swing low 2263.62
  • Mostly sideways move since February 17 – high near 2400 and the lo near 2330
  • Uptrend resumed
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • Breaking below a broadening pattern, if successful then it may turn out to be a reversal
  • Broken the sequence of higher highs and higher lows since 4:00 AM on May 18;
  • Below recently drooping 20-bar EMA and 50-bar EMA
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Declining since 3:30 PM on Friday, the high reached by the bounce from the sharp decline of Friday morning
  • Down trend since June 2; within a down sloping flag, which is breaking to the downside
  • Below falling 50-bar EMA and 20-bar EMA

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed down Friday June 9 giving up early session gains. S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, NASDAQ Composite made all time intra day highs and then closed down. Russell 2000 also made all time high and managed to close up.

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