Morning Notes – Wednesday June 14, 2017

/ June 14, 2017

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • Futures are higher
  • Moving higher since 1:00 PM on June 12
  • Odds are for an up day; watch for break below 2435.00 for change of fortunes
  • Key economic data:
    • CPI (-0.1% vs. est. 0.2%) at 8:30 AM
    • Core CPI (0.1% vs. 0.2%) at 8:30 AM
    • Core Retail Sales (-0.3% vs. 0.2% est.) at 8:30 AM
    • Retail Sales (-0.3% vs. 0.1%)
    • FOMC Statement, Funds Rate and Economic Projections at 2:00 PM

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East closed mixed – Hong Kong, Sydney and Mumbai closed up; Shanghai, Tokyo and Seoul closed down
  • European markets are higher
  • Dollar index and USD/JPY are down; GBP/USD and EUR/USD are up
  • Commodities are mixed – crude oil, NatGas and copper are down; gold and silver are up
  • 10-yrs yield is at 2.139% down from June 13 close of 2.207%; 30-years is at 2.811% down from 2.863%

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2431.28, 2420.45 and 2415.70
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2444.13, 2447.92 and 2454.34
  • Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2443.50, the high of 10:30 AM on June 9 and break below 2435.00, the low of 00:00 AM on June 12

Pre-Open

  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 9:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +4.00; Dow by +31.00; and NASDAQ by +21.75
  • On Tuesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (September contract) closed at 2438.50 and the index closed at 2440.35 – a spread of about 2.50 points; futures closed at 2438.00 for the day; the fair value is +0.50

Directional Bias Before Open

  • Weekly: Up
  • Daily: Up
  • 120-Min: Side
  • 30-Min: Side

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

Monthly
  • Confirmed Uptrend
  • Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
Weekly:
  • Candlestick for the last week, Friday June 9 was an almost doji with smaller upper shadow
  • Last week’s pivot point 2429.90; R1=2444.10, R2=2460.40; S1=2413.60, S2=2399.40
  • A down week – third in last five weeks; fifth in last ten weeks
  • Broke above a down sloping flag (2378.36), which has bullish implications;
  • Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016; first target of 2285.92 and second target of 2363.14 are achieved
  • Last swing low, 2083.79, was the low on November 4, 2016
  • Above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
  • Confirmed uptrend, though pulling back
Daily
  • A green candle that gapped up at the open and did not fill the gap; closed at all time high
  • Above a horizontal channel – high 2400.58 and low 2322.25 – 100% extension target near 2480.00
  • Above 20-day and 50-day EMA; above 100-day and 200-day
  • Last swing low 2263.62
  • Mostly sideways move since February 17 – high near 2400 and the lo near 2330
  • Uptrend resumed
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • Moving to the upper limit of the emerging broadening pattern that has two touches each to both limits
  • Broken the sequence of higher highs and higher lows since 4:00 AM on May 18;
  • Above 20-bar EMA and 50-bar EMA
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Rising since 1:00 PM on June 12
  • Down trend since June 2; within a down sloping flag, which is breaking to the downside
  • Above rising 50-bar EMA and 20-bar EMA

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed higher on Tuesday June 13. They gapped up at the open and after a brief retracement moved higher. The gaps were not filled.

S&P 500, Russell 2000, NYSE Composite and Wilshire 500 Total Market Index closed at all time highs.

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