Morning Notes – Monday June 19, 2017

/ June 19, 2017

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • Futures are higher
  • Moving higher since 10:30 AM on June 16
  • Nearing upper limit of a horizontal channel in effect since 10:00 AM on June 9
  • Odds are for an up; watch for break below 2435.25 for change of fortunes
  • No Key economic data due:

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East closed higher
  • European markets are higher
  • Dollar index and USD/JPY are up; GBP/USD and EUR/USD are down
  • Commodities are mixed – crude oil and copper are up; NatGas, gold and silver are down
  • 10-yrs yield is at 2.171 up from June 16 close of 2.157%; 30-years is at 2.783% up from 2.782%

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2422.88, 2418.53 and 2415.70
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2433.95, 2442.73 and 2446.20
  • Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2440.25, the high of 3:00 AM and break below 2435.25, the low of 0:00 AM

Pre-Open

  • On Friday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (September contract) closed at 2430.50 and the index closed at 2433.15 – a spread of about 2.75 points; futures closed at 2431.00 for the day; the fair value is -0.50
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +8.00; Dow by +79.00; and NASDAQ by +47.00

Directional Bias Before Open

  • Weekly: Up
  • Daily: Up
  • 120-Min: Side
  • 30-Min: Side

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

Monthly
  • Confirmed Uptrend
  • Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
Weekly:
  • Candlestick for the last week, Friday June 16 was an almost doji with small upper and lower shadows
  • Last week’s pivot point 2431.81; R1=2445.09, R2=2457.03; S1=2419.87, S2=2406.87
  • An up week – third in last five weeks; sixth in last ten weeks
  • Broke above a down sloping flag (2378.36), which has bullish implications;
  • Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016; first target of 2285.92 and second target of 2363.14 are achieved
  • Last swing low, 2083.79, was the low on November 4, 2016
  • Above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
  • Confirmed uptrend, though pulling back
Daily
  • A dragonfly doji candle with high and low within Thursday’s high and lows
  • Above a horizontal channel – high 2400.58 and low 2322.25 – 100% extension target near 2480.00
  • Above 20-day, 50-day EMA, 100-day and 200-day
  • Last swing low 2263.62
  • Uptrend resumed
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • Moving to upper limit of an emerging broadening pattern with two touches each to upper and lower limits
  • Broken the sequence of higher highs and higher lows since 4:00 AM on May 18;
  • Above rising 20-bar EMA and 50-bar EMA
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • The broken ascending triangle has morphed into a horizontal channel; moving to the upper limit of the channel
  • The horizontal channel is being formed since 10:00 AM on June 9, following a failed break from down-sloping flag which was in effect from June 2 to June 9
  • Moving up since 10:30 AM on June 16
  • Above rising 50-bar EMA and 20-bar EMA

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed mixed on Friday June 16. Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, Dow Jones Transportation Average and NYSE Composite closed up. NASDAW Composite, Russell 2000 and Wilshire 500 Total Market Index closed down. For the week the indices were mixed too with similar direction as that on Friday.

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