Morning Notes – Tuesday June 20, 2017

/ June 20, 2017

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • Futures are lower
  • Moving sideways since 10:30 AM on June 19
  • Falling back to the upper limit of a horizontal channel that price broke at 10:00 AM on June 19
  • Odds are for a sideways to down day; watch for break above 2451.00 for change of fortunes
  • No Key economic data due:

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East closed mostly down – Tokyo was up
  • European markets are mixed – Germany, France and Switzerland are higher; U.K. Spain, Italy and STOXX 600 are lower
  • Dollar index, USD/JPY and GBP/USD are lower; EUR/USD is up
  • Commodities are mostly lower – NatGas is up
  • 10-yrs yield is at 2.172 down from June 19 close of 2.190%; 30-years is at 2.759% down from 2.788%

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2448.19, 2441.79 and 2433.95
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2457.59, 2461.72 and 2469.62
  • Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2451.50, the high of 3:30 PM on June 19 and break below 2445.50, the low of 2:30 PM on June 19

Pre-Open

  • On Monday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (September contract) closed at 2450.25 and the index closed at 2453.46 – a spread of about 3.25 points; futures closed at 2447.50 for the day; the fair value is +2.50
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the downside – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -2.00; Dow by -6.00; and NASDAQ is up by +1.00

Directional Bias Before Open

  • Weekly: Up
  • Daily: Up
  • 120-Min: Side
  • 30-Min: Side

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

Monthly
  • Confirmed Uptrend
  • Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
Weekly:
  • Candlestick for the last week, Friday June 16 was an almost doji with small upper and lower shadows
  • Last week’s pivot point 2431.81; R1=2445.09, R2=2457.03; S1=2419.87, S2=2406.87
  • An up week – third in last five weeks; sixth in last ten weeks
  • Broke above a down sloping flag (2378.36) on April 24, which has bullish implications; first target is near 2520.00 and the second target is near 2640.00
  • Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016; first target of 2285.92 is achieved; second target is near 2467.50
  • Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
  • Above 39-week SMA, 89-week SMA and 10-week SMA
  • Confirmed uptrend, though pulling back
Daily
  • A relatively large green candle with almost no upper and lower shadow that opened with a gap that did not fill
  • Above a horizontal channel – high 2400.58 and low 2322.25 – 100% extension target near 2480.00
  • Above 20-day, 50-day EMA, 100-day and 200-day
  • Uptrend resumed
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • Falling back under the upper limit of an emerging broadening pattern after breaking above it on June 19
  • Resumed a sequence of higher highs and higher lows since 10:00 AM on June 12
  • Above rising 20-bar EMA and 50-bar EMA
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Retracing to the upper limit of the horizontal channel that it broke above at 10:00 AM on June 19
  • Moving up since 10:30 AM on June 16
  • Below flat 20-bar EMA and at 50-bar EMA

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed higher on Monday June 19. Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and NYSE Composite made all time intraday and closing high. Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index made all time closing high.

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