Moving up in an up-sloping channel since 1:30 AM on July 27
Odds are for an up day – watch for break below 2471.25 for a change of fortunes
Key economic data due:
Core PCE Price Index (0.1% vs. 0.1% est.) at 8:30 AM
Personal Spending (0.1% vs. 0.1% est.), Personal Income (0.0% vs. 0.4% est.) at 8:30 AM
ISM Manufacturing PMI (est. 56.4) at 10:00 AM
Markets Around The World
Markets in the East closed higher
European markets are higher – Switzerland is closed
Dollar index and USD/JPY are up; GBP/USD and EUR/USD are lower
Commodities are lower
10-yrs yield closed at 2.292% on July 31 up from July 28 close of 2.289%; 30-years closed at 2.898% up from 2.892%
Key Levels:
Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2468.53, 2464.66 and 2459.93
Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2477.96, 2481.96 and 2484.04
Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2475.25, the high of 6:30 AM and break below 2471.25, the low of 7:00 AM
Pre-Open
On Monday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (September contract) closed at 2467.50 and the index closed at 2470.30 – a spread of about 2.75 points; futures closed at 2468.00 for the day; the fair value is -0.50
Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 8:15 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +5.00; Dow by +93.00; and NASDAQ by +16.25
Directional Bias Before Open
Weekly: Up
Daily: Up
120-Min: Side
30-Min: Up
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
A doji candle near the middle of the range for the last week, Friday July 28; made all time highs during the week
Last week’s pivot point 2472.02; R1=2484.12, R2=2496.13; S1=2460.01, S2=2447.91
A down week – first after three up weeks and second in last five weeks; third in last ten weeks
Broke above a down sloping flag (2378.36) on April 24, which has bullish implications; first target is near 2520.00 and the second target is near 2640.00
Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016; first target of 2285.92 is achieved; second target is near 2467.50
Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
Above 39-week SMA, 89-week SMA and 10-week SMA
Confirmed uptrend, though pulling back
Daily
A red candle with almost same sized upper and lower shadows; a break below Friday’s low is still relevant for more move down
Last pattern was down-sloping flag in June, which was broken to the upside o July 13; the first target (100%) extension is near 2507.00; pattern before that was a horizontal channel, resulting in upside break, with a 100% extension target near 2480.00
Above 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA, 100-day and 200-day
Confirmed Uptrend
2-Hour (e-mini future)
Continues Monday’s chart pattern – futures rising up in stair shape after bouncing off the support made by the highs made on July 14 and above the sharp decline of 12:00 Noon candle on July 27; higher highs and higher lows since 6:00 AM on July 28
Sequence of higher highs and higher lows, since 12:00 PM on June 29, is in danger of breaking; a break below 2457.00 will do it
Above 20-bar EMA, which is at 50-bar EMA
30-Minute (e-mini future)
Moving up in an up-sloping channel; broke above an uneven horizontal channel at 2:30 PM on July 28 and, after a test of the upper limit, again at 2:00 AM on July 31; the 100% extension target is near 2473.00 and 161.8% is near 2476.50
Below up-sloping 20-bar EMA but above 50-bar EMA
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices closed mostly down on Monday, July 31. Dow Jones Industrial Average and NYSE Composite closed up. DJIA made another high.
NASDAQ Composite made a bearish engulfing pattern. Dow Jones Transportation Average made a dark-cloud cover pattern,
Only three S&P 500 sectors – Energy, Finance and Utility – were up on Monday.
