Odds are for sideways day – watch for break above 2476.00 or below 2471.25 for a change of fortunes
Key economic data due:
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (est. 187K) at 8:15 AM
Markets Around The World
Markets in the East closed mixed – Shanghai, Sydney and Mumbai closed lower; Hong Kong, Tokyo and Seoul closed higher
European markets are mostly lower – Switzerland is higher
Dollar index is down; USD/JPY, GBP/USD and EUR/USD are up
Commodities are lower
10-yrs yield closed at 2.251% on August 1 down from July 31 close of 2.292%; 30-years closed at 2.851% up from 2.898%
Key Levels:
Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2471.14, 2468.53 and 2464.66
Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2477.96, 2481.96 and 2484.04
Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2476.00, the high of 6:30 AM and break below 2471.25, the low of 4:00 PM on August 1
Pre-Open
On Tuesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (September contract) closed at 2473.00 and the index closed at 2476.35 – a spread of about 3.25 points; futures closed at 2472.25 for the day; the fair value is +0.75
Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 7:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +0.25; Dow by +36.00; and NASDAQ by +39.75
Directional Bias Before Open
Weekly: Up
Daily: Up
120-Min: Side
30-Min: Side
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
A doji candle near the middle of the range for the last week, Friday July 28; made all time highs during the week
Last week’s pivot point 2472.02; R1=2484.12, R2=2496.13; S1=2460.01, S2=2447.91
A down week – first after three up weeks and second in last five weeks; third in last ten weeks
Broke above a down sloping flag (2378.36) on April 24, which has bullish implications; first target is near 2520.00 and the second target is near 2640.00
Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016; first target of 2285.92 is achieved; second target is near 2467.50
Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
Above 39-week SMA, 89-week SMA and 10-week SMA
Confirmed uptrend, though pulling back
Daily
A red doji candle with small lower shadow and smaller upper shadow
Last pattern was down-sloping flag in June, which was broken to the upside o July 13; the first target (100%) extension is near 2507.00; pattern before that was a horizontal channel, resulting in upside break, with a 100% extension target near 2480.00
Above 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA, 100-day and 200-day
Confirmed Uptrend
2-Hour (e-mini future)
Continues past two days’ chart pattern – futures rising up in stair shape after bouncing off the support made by the highs made on July 14 and above the sharp decline of 12:00 Noon candle on July 27; higher highs and higher lows since 6:00 AM on July 28
Sequence of higher highs and higher lows, since 12:00 PM on June 29, is in danger of breaking; a break below 2457.00 will do it
Above 20-bar EMA, which is at 50-bar EMA
30-Minute (e-mini future)
The up-sloping channel is morphing into a horizontal channel; broke above an uneven horizontal channel at 2:30 PM on July 28; 100% and 161.8% extension targets achieved
Below 50-bar EMA, which is below 20-bar EMA
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices closed mostly higher on Tuesday, August 1. Dow Jones Transportation Average closed down. Dow Jones Industrial Average made another high. NASDAQ Composite made a harami pattern within a bearish engulfing pattern.
Four S&P 500 sectors – Consumer Staples, Energy, Industrial and Healthcare – were down on Tuesday.
