Moving down from 2488.50, high at 12:00 PM on August 8; fresh leg down from high of 2468.00 at 3:00 AM; forming a bearish ABCD pattern with target near 2440.00
Odds are for a down day – watch for break above 2468.00 for a change of fortunes
Key economic data due:
Prelim Non-Far, Productivity (est. 0.7%) at 8:30 AM
Prelim Unit Labor Costs (est. 1.1%) at 8:30 AM
Markets Around The World
Markets in the East closed mostly lower – Sydney was up
European markets are down
Dollar index, USD/JPY, GBP/USD and EUR/USD are down
Commodities are higher
10-yrs yield closed at 2.283% on August 8 up from August 7 close of 2.257%; 30-years closed at 2.867% down from 2.837%
Key Levels:
Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2466.48, 2459.93 and 2450.34
Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2483.14, 2490.87 and 2499.25
Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2468.00, the high of 3:00 AM and break below 2459.00, the low of 5:30 AM
Pre-Open
On Tuesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (September contract) closed at 2472.00 and the index closed at 2474.92 – a spread of about 3.00 points; futures closed at 2472.75 for the day; the fair value is -0.75
Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the downside – at 7:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -10.50; Dow by -49.00; and NASDAQ by -37.00
Directional Bias Before Open
Weekly: Up
Daily: Up
120-Min: Side-to-Down
30-Min: Side-to-Down
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
Another doji candle with small upper and lower shadows within previous week’s candle for the week ending on Friday August 4
Last week’s pivot point 2474.56; R1=2482.65, R2=2488.46; S1=2468.75, S2=2460.66
An up week – fourth in last five weeks; seventh in last ten weeks
Broke above a down sloping flag (2378.36) on April 24, which has bullish implications; first target is near 2520.00 and the second target is near 2640.00
Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016; first target of 2285.92 is achieved; second target is near 2467.50
Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
Above 39-week SMA, 89-week SMA and 10-week SMA
Confirmed uptrend, though pulling back
Daily
A small bodied red candle with large upper shadow and small lower shadow; declined from all time high and lost ground; could turn out to be a reversal
Last pattern was down-sloping flag in June, which was broken to the upside o July 13; the first target (100%) extension is near 2507.00; pattern before that was a horizontal channel, resulting in upside break, with a 100% extension target near 2480.00
Above 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA, 100-day and 200-day
Confirmed Uptrend
2-Hour (e-mini future)
Broke above a symmetrical triangle and reached 61.8% of the height before reversing; broke below the lower bound of the triangle
Near the support of 2457.00, the low on July 27, a significant support level
Higher highs and higher lows since 6:00 AM on July 28
Below 20-bar EMA, which is below 50-bar EMA
30-Minute (e-mini future)
Sharply lower from high of 2488.50 at 12:00 PM on August 8; lower lows and lower highs; brief bounce failed after an up-slopoing flag; target near 2440.00
Below 20-bar EMA and 50-bar EMA
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices closed lower on Tuesday, August 8. All gave up their mid day gains and the closed in the lower half of day’s range. S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, NYSE Composite and Wlishire 5000 Total Market Index made all time intra-day highs but closed down. Thsi will constitute a one-reversal but for it to have any teeth, the day’s low has to be taken out.
Only two S&P 500 sectors – Consumer Discretionary and Utility – were up on Tuesday.
