Moving lower since 12:00 PM on August 16 with anew leg down at 3:00 AM
Odds are for a down day – watch for break below 2468.50 for a change of fortunes
Key economic data due:
Unemployment Claims (232K vs. 240K est.) at 8:30 AM
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (18.9 vs. 18.3 est.)
Capacity Utilization Rate (est. 0.3%) at 9:15 AM
Industrial Production (est. 76.7%) at 9:15 AM
Markets Around The World
Markets in the East closed mixed – Shanghai, Mumbai and Seoul were up; Hong Kong, Tokyo and Sydney were down
European markets are lower
Dollar index, and USD/JPY are up; EUR/USD and GBP/USD are down
Commodities are mixed – crude oil, NatGas and copper are lower; gold and silver are up
10-yrs yield closed at 2.226% on August 16 down from August 15 close of 2.266%; 30-years closed at 2.808% down from 2.841%
Key Levels:
Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2463.86, 2454.96 and 2448.09
Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2474.93, 2483.45 and 2490.87
Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2465.25, the high of 6:30 AM and break below 2460.00, the low of 10:30 AM on August 15
Pre-Open
On Wednesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (September contract) closed at 2467.25 and the index closed at 2468.11 – a spread of about 1.00 points; futures closed at 2467.50 for the day; the fair value is -0.25
Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the downside – at 8:15 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -8.00; Dow by -55.00; and NASDAQ by -31.50
Directional Bias Before Open
Weekly: Up
Daily: Up
120-Min: Side
30-Min: Side
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
A large red candle after few weeks doji candles the week ending on August 11
Last week’s pivot point 2456.65; R1=2475.54, R2=2509.77; S1=2422.42, S2=2403.53
A down week, second in five weeks; fourth in last ten weeks
Broke above a down sloping flag (2378.36) on April 24, which has bullish implications; first target is near 2520.00 and the second target is near 2640.00
Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016; first target of 2285.92 is achieved; second target is near 2467.50
Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
At 10-week EMA; above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
Confirmed uptrend, though pulling back
Daily
A small red doji candle with small upper and lower shadows
Last pattern was down-sloping flag in June; was broken to the upside on July 13; the first target (100%) extension is near 2507.00; pattern will be relevant is futures do not fall below 2430.00
Pattern before that was a horizontal channel, resulting in upside break, with a 100% extension target near 2480.00, which was achieved on August 8
At 20-day EMA; at 50-day EMA; above 100-day and 200-day
Confirmed Uptrend
2-Hour (e-mini future)
Sideways move since 12:00 PM on August 14 within a horizontal channel with high of 2474.00 and low of 2460;
Pulling back to lower bound of the horizontal channel from the upper bound
Sequence of lower highs and lower lows since 12:00 PM high on August 8 with one exception; break above 2474.00 will nullify it
At or below flattening 50-bar EMA, which is below flattening 20-bar EMA
30-Minute (e-mini future)
Below a downtrend line from 2474.00, the high at 12:00 PM on August 16
Higher highs and higher lows since the low of 2434.00 at 7:30 AM on August 11; a break below 2460.00 will nullify it
Lower lows and lower highs on a larger scale, since August 8 high
Below a flat 20-bar EMA, which is below flat 50-bar EMA
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices closed higher on Wednesday, August 16. The markets reached intra-day high by mid-day and then gradually drifted lower. The day’s range ws small and most indices closed near the lows of the day.
Only two S&P 500 sectors – Energy and Finance – were down on Wednesday.
