Morning Notes – Friday September 15, 2017

/ September 15, 2017

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • S&P Futures are lower
  • Moving sideways since 12:30 PM on September 11
  • Odds are for a sideways day – watch for break above 2496.25 and below 2487.00 for a change of fortunes
  • Key economic data due:
    • Retail Sales (-0.2% vs. 0.1% est.) at 8:30 AM
    • Core Retail Sales (0.2% vs. 0.5% est.) at 8:30 AM
    • Empire State Manufacturing (24.4 vs. 18.2 est.) at 8:30 AM
    • Capacity Utilization (76.1% vs. 76.8% est.) at 9:15 AM
    • Industrial Production (-0.9% vs. 0.1% est.) at 9:15 AM
    • Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (est. 95.1) at 10:00 AM

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East closed mixed – Shanghai and Sydney closed down; Hong Kong, Tokyo, Mumbai and Seoul closed up; the intra-day trend matched the days close except for Hong Kong
  • European markets are lower; intra-day trend is sideways for DAX and FTSEMIB-MIL (Italy) and down for others
  • Currencies:
    Up Down
    • EUR/USD
    • GBP/USD
    • USD/JPY
    • AUD/USD
    • NZD/USD
    • Dollar index
    • USD/CHF
    • USD/CAD
  • Commodities are mostly down
    Up Down
    • Crude Oil
    • NatGas
    • Silver
    • Copper
    • Platinum
    • Sugar
    • Gold
    • Palladium
    • Coffee
    • Cotton
    • Cocoa
  • 10-yrs yield is at 2.185% down from September 14 close of 2.197%; 30-years is at 2.759% down from 2.781%

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2491.35, 2486.17 and 2480.99
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2498.43, 2502.21 and 2506.00
  • Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2493.75, the high of 5:00 AM and break below 2487.00, the low of 6:00 PM on September 14

Pre-Open

  • On Thursday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (December contract) closed at 2494.50 and the index closed at 2495.62 – a spread of about 1.00 points; futures closed at 2494.25 for the day; the fair value is +0.25
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the downside – at 9:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -4.25; Dow by -16.00; and NASDAQ by -7.25

Directional Bias Before Open

  • Weekly: Up-to-Side
  • Daily: Up-to-Side
  • 120-Min: Side
  • 30-Min: Side

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

Monthly
  • Confirmed Uptrend
  • Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
Weekly:
  • A red harami candle within a large green candle for the week ending on Friday September 8; almost 1.2% below all time high of 2490.87 reached during the week ending on August 11
  • Last week’s pivot point 2459.98; R1=2473.42, R2=2485.40; S1=2448.00, S2=2434.56; none of the resistance or support levels were breached
  • A down week – third in last five weeks; fourth in last ten weeks
  • Broke above a down sloping flag (2378.36) on April 24, which has bullish implications; first target is near 2520.00 and the second target is near 2640.00
  • Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016; first target of 2285.92 is achieved; second target is near 2467.50
  • Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
  • Bouncing off 10-week EM; above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
  • Confirmed uptrend, though pulling back and moving sideways since June 5
Daily
  • A small harami doji candle just above Monday’s large green candle; three consecutive days of narrow range candles
  • Last pattern, a down-sloping flag in June that was broken to the upside on July 13, is nullified when price broke below 2430.00; however, the index was below 2430.00 for only one day and the pattern may be revived
  • Above 20-day EMA, which is above 50-day EMA; Above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
  • Pivot Point=2495.13; R1=2498.92, R2=2502.21; S1=2491.84, S2=2488.05; S1 was breached
  • Uptrend under pressure; mostly moving sideways since June 2 between 2490.00 and 2410.00; trying to break up for the past few days
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • Futures moving higher since 12:00 PM on September 11; between high near 2495.00 and low near 2487.00
  • Sequence of higher high and higher low since 12:00 PM September 5
  • At flat 20-bar EMA, which is above flattening 50-bar EMA
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Side ways move since 12:30 PM on September 11; a downward bias since 6:00 PM on September 12
  • High highs and higher lows, with couple of exceptions, since 5:00 AM on August 29
  • At flat 20-bar EMA and 50-bar EMA with down bias

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed mostly lower on Thursday September 14 but most made another all time intra-day high. $VIX also closed down. The daily price range for the last 3 days has been very narrow.

Dow Transportation Average and Russell 2000 are still off their all time highs reached in July.

  • S&P 500 Sectors
Up Down
  1. Energy
  2. Materials
  3. Industrials
  4. Utility
  5. Heath Care
  6. Real Estate
  1. Consumer Discretionary
  2. Consumer Staples
  3. Finance
  4. Technology

 

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