Odds are for a sideways day – watch for break above 2496.25 and below 2487.00 for a change of fortunes
Key economic data due:
Retail Sales (-0.2% vs. 0.1% est.) at 8:30 AM
Core Retail Sales (0.2% vs. 0.5% est.) at 8:30 AM
Empire State Manufacturing (24.4 vs. 18.2 est.) at 8:30 AM
Capacity Utilization (76.1% vs. 76.8% est.) at 9:15 AM
Industrial Production (-0.9% vs. 0.1% est.) at 9:15 AM
Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (est. 95.1) at 10:00 AM
Markets Around The World
Markets in the East closed mixed – Shanghai and Sydney closed down; Hong Kong, Tokyo, Mumbai and Seoul closed up; the intra-day trend matched the days close except for Hong Kong
European markets are lower; intra-day trend is sideways for DAX and FTSEMIB-MIL (Italy) and down for others
Currencies:
Up
Down
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
USD/JPY
AUD/USD
NZD/USD
Dollar index
USD/CHF
USD/CAD
Commodities are mostly down
Up
Down
Crude Oil
NatGas
Silver
Copper
Platinum
Sugar
Gold
Palladium
Coffee
Cotton
Cocoa
10-yrs yield is at 2.185% down from September 14 close of 2.197%; 30-years is at 2.759% down from 2.781%
Key Levels:
Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2491.35, 2486.17 and 2480.99
Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2498.43, 2502.21 and 2506.00
Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2493.75, the high of 5:00 AM and break below 2487.00, the low of 6:00 PM on September 14
Pre-Open
On Thursday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (December contract) closed at 2494.50 and the index closed at 2495.62 – a spread of about 1.00 points; futures closed at 2494.25 for the day; the fair value is +0.25
Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the downside – at 9:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -4.25; Dow by -16.00; and NASDAQ by -7.25
Directional Bias Before Open
Weekly: Up-to-Side
Daily: Up-to-Side
120-Min: Side
30-Min: Side
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
A red harami candle within a large green candle for the week ending on Friday September 8; almost 1.2% below all time high of 2490.87 reached during the week ending on August 11
Last week’s pivot point 2459.98; R1=2473.42, R2=2485.40; S1=2448.00, S2=2434.56; none of the resistance or support levels were breached
A down week – third in last five weeks; fourth in last ten weeks
Broke above a down sloping flag (2378.36) on April 24, which has bullish implications; first target is near 2520.00 and the second target is near 2640.00
Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016; first target of 2285.92 is achieved; second target is near 2467.50
Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
Bouncing off 10-week EM; above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
Confirmed uptrend, though pulling back and moving sideways since June 5
Daily
A small harami doji candle just above Monday’s large green candle; three consecutive days of narrow range candles
Last pattern, a down-sloping flag in June that was broken to the upside on July 13, is nullified when price broke below 2430.00; however, the index was below 2430.00 for only one day and the pattern may be revived
Above 20-day EMA, which is above 50-day EMA; Above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
Pivot Point=2495.13; R1=2498.92, R2=2502.21; S1=2491.84, S2=2488.05; S1 was breached
Uptrend under pressure; mostly moving sideways since June 2 between 2490.00 and 2410.00; trying to break up for the past few days
2-Hour (e-mini future)
Futures moving higher since 12:00 PM on September 11; between high near 2495.00 and low near 2487.00
Sequence of higher high and higher low since 12:00 PM September 5
At flat 20-bar EMA, which is above flattening 50-bar EMA
30-Minute (e-mini future)
Side ways move since 12:30 PM on September 11; a downward bias since 6:00 PM on September 12
High highs and higher lows, with couple of exceptions, since 5:00 AM on August 29
At flat 20-bar EMA and 50-bar EMA with down bias
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices closed mostly lower on Thursday September 14 but most made another all time intra-day high. $VIX also closed down. The daily price range for the last 3 days has been very narrow.
Dow Transportation Average and Russell 2000 are still off their all time highs reached in July.
