Drifting down since 3:30 PM on September 20; below a downtrend line from the high of 2507.00 at 9:30 AM on Wednesday
Odds are for a down to sideways day – watch for break above 2506.75
Key economic data due:
Unemployment Claims (est. 302K) at 8:30 AM
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (est. 17.3) at 8:30 AM
Markets Around The World
Markets in the East closed mostly lower – Tokyo was up; the intra-day trend was mostly down sideways; Mumbai and Sydney recovered later in the day
European markets are higher; intra-day trend is either up or sideways after an initial up move
Currencies:
Up
Down
Dollar index
EUR/USD
USD/JPY
USD/CHF
USD/CAD
GBP/USD
AUD/USD
NZD/USD
Commodities are mostly down
Up
Down
Crude Oil
NatGas
Gold
Silver
Copper
Platinum
Palladium
Sugar
Coffee
Cotton
Cocoa
10-yrs yield closed at 2.277% on September 20 up from September 19 close of 2.243%; 30-years closed at 2.821% up from 2.813%
Key Levels:
Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2496.67, 2493.16 and 2490.37
Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2508.82, 2512.50 and 2516.77
Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2506.75, the high of 3:30 PM on September 20 and break below 2501.50, the low of 3:00 AM
Pre-Open
On Wednesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (December contract) closed at 2506.00 and the index closed at 2508.24 – a spread of about 2.50 points; futures closed at 2505.25 for the day; the fair value is +0.75
Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the downside – at 7:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -1.25; Dow down by -7.00; and NASDAQ down by -3.75
Directional Bias Before Open
Weekly: Up
Daily: Up
120-Min: Side-to-Up
30-Min: Side-to-Up
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
A green shaven top and shaven bottom candle that gapped up from previous day’s red harami candle; all time highs after a brief – seven week pullback
Last week’s pivot point 2491.66; R1=2508.80, R2=2517.37; S1=2483.09, S2=2465.95; R1/R2/R3 were breached; support levels not breached for four weeks
An up week – third in last five weeks; sixth in last ten weeks
Broke above a down sloping flag (2378.36) on April 24, which has bullish implications; first target is near 2520.00 and the second target is near 2640.00
Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016; first target of 2285.92 is achieved; second target is near 2467.50
Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
Above 10-week EM; above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
Confirmed uptrend, though pulling back and moving sideways since June 5
Daily
A doji candle with a small upper shadow and much larger lower shadow; breached previous day’s low
Last pattern, a down-sloping flag in June that was broken to the upside on July 13, is re-asserted
Above 20-day EMA, which is above 50-day EMA; Above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
Not much change from Tuesday and Wednesday pre-session price action; moving sideways since 8:00 PM on September 17 in a very narrow range except for one bar of extreme move
Sequence of higher high and higher low since 12:00 PM September 5
At/above flat 20-bar EMA, which is above flattening 50-bar EMA
30-Minute (e-mini future)
Same as on Tuesday and Wednesday morning; drifting sideways since 8:00 PM on September 17
Previously emerging triangle morphed into an in-even horizontal range
Higher highs and higher lows, with few exceptions, since 5:00 AM on August 29
At/above a flat 20-bar EMA, which is at/above flat 50-bar EMA
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices closed mostly higher on Wednesday September 20. NASDAQ Composite closed down. Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, NYSE Composite and Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index made all time highs. Dow Jones Transportation Average is breaking up from a 3-4 days congestion area. Russell 2000 is near all time highs.
Just before and after FOMC announce at 2:00 PM, the volatility increased and the S&P 500 dropped from a high of 2506.75 at 12:30 PM to a low of 2494.00 at 2:30 PM. However, it recovered most of the lost ground and closed higher with a doji candle.
