Morning Notes – Tuesday September 26, 2017

/ September 26, 2017

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • S&P Futures are little changed to up
  • Moving sideways since 8:30 PM on September 25 – between high of 2497.50 and low of 2493.75
  • Breaking above a symmetrical triangle on 30-minute chart; first target is near 2501.25
  • Odds are for a sideways to an up day – watch for break below 2494.25
  •  Key economic data due:
    • Conference Board Consumer Confidence (est. 119.9) at 10:00 AM
    • New Homes Sales (est. 585K) at 10:00 AM

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East closed mostly down – Shanghai and Hong Kong were up; the intra-day trend was mostly down for the day with late recovery for some markets
  • European markets are mixed – Germany, U.K., Italy and STOXX 600 are up; France, Spain and Switzerland are down; down; intra-day trend was up in early session for many followed by either sideways or down move since 5:30 AM
  • Currencies:
    Up Down
    • Dollar index
    • USD/JPY
    • USD/CHF
    • USD/CAD
    • EUR/USD
    • GBP/USD
    • AUD/USD
    • NZD/USD
  • Commodities are mostly down
    Up Down
    • NatGas
    • Coffee
    • Cocoa
    • Crude Oil
    • Gold
    • Silver
    • Copper
    • Platinum
    • Palladium
    • Sugar
    • Cotton
  • 10-yrs yield is at 2.223% up from September 25 close of 2.220%; 30-years is at 2.761% up from 2.760%

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2491.04, 2488.03 and 2480.99
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2501.29, 2503.85 and 2508.82
  • Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2498.00, the high of 6:00 PM on September 25 and break below 2494.25, the low of 7:00 AM

Pre-Open

  • On Monday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (December contract) closed at 2494.00 and the index closed at 2496.66 – a spread of about 2.50 points; futures closed at 2497.00 for the day; the fair value is -3.00
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 8:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +1.00; Dow down by +14.00; and NASDAQ by +22.25

Directional Bias Before Open

  • Weekly: Up
  • Daily: Up
  • 120-Min: Side
  • 30-Min: Side-to-Down

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

Monthly
  • Confirmed Uptrend
  • Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
Weekly:
  • A green shaven top and shaven bottom candle that gapped up from previous day’s red harami candle; all time highs after a brief – seven week pullback
  • Last week’s pivot point 2491.66; R1=2508.80, R2=2517.37; S1=2483.09, S2=2465.95; R1/R2/R3 were breached; support levels not breached for four weeks
  • An up week – third in last five weeks; sixth in last ten weeks
  • Broke above a down sloping flag (2378.36) on April 24, which has bullish implications; first target is near 2520.00 and the second target is near 2640.00
  • Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016; first target of 2285.92 is achieved; second target is near 2467.50
  • Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
  • Above 10-week EM; above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
  • Confirmed uptrend, though pulling back and moving sideways since June 5
Daily
  • A red doji near the middle of the range; index declined sharply after a short uptick  at the open, made low by 11:30 AM and then reversed to close near the open level
  • Last pattern, a down-sloping flag in June that was broken to the upside on July 13, is re-asserted
  • Above 20-day EMA, which is above 50-day EMA; Above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
  • Pivot Point=2495.74; R1=2503.46, R2=2510.25; S1=2488.95, S2=2481.23; S1/S2/S3 were breached
  • Confirmed Uptrend
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • In a downtrend since high of 2506.75 at 2:00 PM on September 20; a bounce up on Sunday, September 24, was repulsed at the downtrend line
  • Broke below a horizontal channel, with high near 2507.00 and low near 2496.75, achieved a target near 2485.00 level
  • Bounced off the support near 2487.00 and now the price is back within the lower limit of the broken horizontal channel
  • Sequence of higher high and higher low since 12:00 PM September 5 is in danger of breaking
  • Below drooping 20-bar EMA, which is below drooping 50-bar EMA
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Down trend since the of high of 2507.25 at  9:30 AM on September 20; lower high and lower lows since then
  • Break below a symmetrical triangle on September 21 was resumed and the 100% extension target near 2485.00 was achieved
  • Rising since the low so 2485.00 at 11:00 AM on September 25
  • At/above flattening 20-bar EMA, which is below flattening 50-bar EMA

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices mostly declined on Monday September 25. Russell 2000 and Dow Jones Transportation Average advanced. Market declined from the open and made the day’s lows around 11:30 AM. After that it mostly rose higher. Most indices made a dojji. S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average made doji near the middle of day’s range. NASDAQ Composite lost most, -0.9%, and DJT was best performing with +0.11% gain.

  • S&P 500 Sectors
Up Down
  1. Consumer Staples
  2. Energy
  3. Materials
  4. Industrials (Unch.)
  5. Utility
  6. Real Estate
  1. Consumer Discretionary
  2. Finance
  3. Technology
  4. Heath Care

 

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