Morning Notes – Friday September 29, 2017

/ September 29, 2017

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • S&P Futures are lower
  • Within a narrow horizontal channel – between 2507.50 and 2505.50 – since 6:30 PM on September 28
  • Odds are for a sideways – watch for break above 2508.25 and below 2504.50 for change of fortunes
  •  Key economic data due:
    • Core PCE Price Index (0.1% vs. 0.2% est.) at 8:30 AM
    • Personal Spending (0.1% vs. 01.% est.) at 8:30 AM
    • Personal Income (0.2% vs. 0.2% est.) at 8:30 AM

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East closed mostly up – Tokyo was down; the intra-day trend was mixed;
  • European markets are mixed – Germany, U.K, Italy and Switzerland are up; France, Spain and STOXX 600 are down; down; intraday trend is mixed
  • Currencies:
    Up Down
    • EUR/USD
    • NZD/USD
    • USD/CAD
    • Dollar index
    • USD/JPY
    • GBP/USD
    • USD/CHF
    • AUD/USD
  • Commodities are mostly down
    Up Down
    • Gold
    • Silver
    • Platinum (Unch.)
    • Palladium
    • Sugar
    • Cocoa
    • Crude Oil
    • NatGas
    • Copper
    • Coffee (Unch.)
    • Cotton
  • 10-yrs yield is at 2.307% down from September 28 close of 2.309%; 30-years is at 2.867% down from 2.869%

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2507.35, 2502.93 and 2495.91
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2511.75, 2515.81 and 2520.82
  • Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2507.50, the high of 6:30 AM and break below 2505.50, the low of 3:00 AM

Pre-Open

  • On Thursday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (December contract) closed at 2507.00 and the index closed at 2510.06 – a spread of about 3.00 points; futures closed at 2507.75 for the day; the fair value is -0.75
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is mixed – at 8:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -2.25; Dow down by -29.00; and NASDAQ up by +6.00

Directional Bias Before Open

  • Weekly: Up
  • Daily: Up
  • 120-Min: Side
  • 30-Min: Side-to-Up

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

Monthly
  • Confirmed Uptrend
  • Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
Weekly:
  • A green shaven top and shaven bottom candle that gapped up from previous day’s red harami candle; all time highs after a brief – seven week pullback
  • Last week’s pivot point 2491.66; R1=2508.80, R2=2517.37; S1=2483.09, S2=2465.95; R1/R2/R3 were breached; support levels not breached for four weeks
  • An up week – third in last five weeks; sixth in last ten weeks
  • Broke above a down sloping flag (2378.36) on April 24, which has bullish implications; first target is near 2520.00 and the second target is near 2640.00
  • Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016; first target of 2285.92 is achieved; second target is near 2467.50
  • Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
  • Above 10-week EM; above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
  • Confirmed uptrend, though pulling back and moving sideways since June 5
Daily
  • A bullish engulfing that closed at all time high; high was below previous day’s high
  • Last pattern, a down-sloping flag in June that was broken to the upside on July 13, is re-asserted
  • Above 20-day EMA, which is above 50-day EMA; Above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
  • Pivot Point=2507.93; R1=2512.94, R2=2515.81; S1=2505.06, S2=2500.05; no S/R breach
  • Confirmed Uptrend
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • Sideway move at the upper  limit of a horizontal channel since 2:00 PM on September 28
  • Sequence of higher high and higher low since 12:00 PM September 5 could resume
  • Above rising 20-bar EMA, which is above rising 50-bar EMA
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Moving mostly sideways since 6:30 PM on September 28 – between 2507.50 and 2505.50
  • Up trend since the of low of 2485.00 at  11:00 AM on September 25;
  • At flattening 20-bar EMA, which is above rising 50-bar EMA

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices advanced on Thursday September 28 following previous day’s rally. The day’s range was small though the markets trended up advanced for most of the day.

Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and NYSE Composite made bullish engulfing candles. NASDAQ Composite made a near green haram candle. Russell 2000, Dow Jones Transportation Average and Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index made new highs

  • S&P 500 Sectors
Up Down
  1. Energy
  2. Materials
  3. Finance
  4. Technology
  5. Utility
  6. Heath Care
  7. Real Estate
  1. Consumer Discretionary
  2. Consumer Staples (Unch.)
  3. Industrials

 

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