Bias will become clear post NFP report; an in-line report will increase the odds for a sideways move – watch for break below 2545.50 and above 2550.75 for change of fortunes
Key economic data due:
Non-Farm Employment Change (est. 82K) at 8:30 AM
Average Hourly Earnings (est. 0.3%) at 8:30 AM
Markets Around The World
Markets in the East were either closed or up – Shanghai and Seoul were closed
European markets are mostly down – Germany and U.K. are up
Currencies:
Up
Down
Dollar index
USD/JPY
USD/CHF
USD/CAD
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
AUD/USD
NZD/USD
Commodities are mostly down
Up
Down
Silver
Platinum (unch.)
Palladium
Sugar
Coffee
Cotton
Cocoa
Crude Oil
NatGas
Gold
Copper
10-yrs yield closed at 2.350% on October 5 up from October 4 close of 2.333%; 30-years closed at 2.893% up from 2.877%
Key Levels:
Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2549.50, 2540.02 and 2535.37
Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2556.38, 2560.69 and 2568.87
Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2550.75, the high of 4:00 PM on October 5 and break below 2545.50, the low of 12:00 PM on October 5
Pre-Open
On Thursday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (December contract) closed at 2549.75 and the index closed at 2552.07 – a spread of about 2.25 points; futures closed at 2550.00 for the day; the fair value is -0.25
Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is almost unchanged – at 7:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -1.50; Dow down by -12.00; and NASDAQ up by +2.00
Directional Bias Before Open
Weekly: Up
Daily: Up
120-Min: Up
30-Min: Up
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
A green bullish engulfing candle with small lower shadow and no upper shadow
Last week’s pivot point 2508.94; R1=2529.86, R2=2540.35; S1=2498.45, S2=2477.53; R1/R2 and S1/S2 were breached; support levels breached after five weeks
An up week – fourth in last five weeks; sixth in last ten weeks
Broke above a down sloping flag (2378.36) on April 24, which has bullish implications; first target is near 2520.00 and the second target is near 2640.00
Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016; first target of 2285.92 is achieved; second target is near 2467.50
Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
Above 10-week EM; above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
Confirmed uptrend, though pulling back and moving sideways since June 5
Daily
A shaved top and bottom green candle that gapped up at the open
Last pattern, a down-sloping flag in June that was broken to the upside on July 13, is re-asserted
Above 20-day EMA, which is above 50-day EMA; Above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
Pivot Point=2548.20; R1=2556.38, R2=2560.69; S1=2543.89, S2=2535.71; R1/R2/R3 were breached
Confirmed Uptrend
2-Hour (e-mini future)
Almost no action since 4:00 PM on Thursday October 5
Broke above a horizontal channel – high 2506.00 and low 2487.50; 100% extension target near 2524.50 is achieved; 161.8% extension target, near 2536.00, is also achieved; 200% extension, near 2544.00, is also achieved; 261.8% extension is near 2555.00
Sequence of higher high and higher low since 12:00 PM September 5
Above rising 20-bar EMA, which is above rising 50-bar EMA
30-Minute (e-mini future)
Drifting sideways since 6:00 PM on October 5 – between 2549.75 and 2548.00
Broke above a symmetrical triangle or a pennant; achieved the triangle target near 2540.75 and 2545.00; achieved the pennant targets near 2544.00 and 2549.25
Up trend since the of low of 2485.00 at 11:00 AM on September 25;
At/above flattening 20-bar EMA, which is above rising 50-bar EMA
Previous Session
Most major U.S. indices advanced on Thursday October 5. Dow Jones Transportation Average was down. Most made all time highs. DJT is making a three-day evening star pattern. Most also gapped up from previous day. Russell 2000 made a bullish engulfing pattern.
