Odds are for an up to sideways day – watch for break above 2553.25 and below 2548.00 for change of fortunes
Key economic data due:
CPI (est. 0.6%) and Core CPI (est. 0.2%) at 8:30 AM
Retail Sales (est. 1.7%) and Core Retail Sales (est. 0.9%) at 8:30 AM
Markets Around The World
Markets in the East closed mostly higher – Seoul was down
European markets are mixed – Germany, France, Italy and STOXX 600 are up; U.K., Spain and Switzerland are down
Currencies:
Up
Down
Dollar index
GBP/USD
USD/CHF
AUD/USD
NZD/USD
EUR/USD
USD/JPY
USD/CAD
Commodities are mostly down
Up
Down
Crude Oil
NatGas
Copper
Palladium
Coffee
Cotton
Gold
Silver
Platinum
Sugar
Cocoa
10-yrs yield closed at 2.323% on October 12 down from October 11 close of 2.345%; 30-years closed at 2.853% down from 2.875%
Key Levels:
Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2548.31, 2544.86 and 2540.02
Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2555.26, 2558.54 and 2561.76
Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2553.25, the high of 12:00 PM on October 12 and break below 2548.00, the low of 4:00 AM
Pre-Open
On Thursday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (December contract) closed at 2548.75 and the index closed at 2550.93 – a spread of about 2.25 points; futures closed at 2549.50 for the day; the fair value is -0.75
Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 7:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +1.50; Dow by +22.00; and NASDAQ by +3.50
Directional Bias Before Open
Weekly: Up
Daily: Up
120-Min: Side
30-Min: Side
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
A green candle hat is breaking away from previous one
Last week’s pivot point 2540.75; R1=2561.09, R2=2572.86; S1=2528.98, S2=2508.64; R1/R2 ere breached; R1 has been breached for four weeks and R2 for two; support levels were breached only once in seven weeks, which was during the week ending on September 29
An up week – fourth in last five weeks; seventh in last ten weeks
Broke above a down sloping flag (2378.36) on April 24, which has bullish implications; first target is near 2520.00 and the second target is near 2640.00
Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016; first target of 2285.92 is achieved; second target is near 2467.50
Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
Above 10-week EM; above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
Confirmed uptrend
Daily
A near doji candle following a bullish engulfing candle
Last pattern, a down-sloping flag in June that was broken to the upside on July 13, is re-asserted
Above 20-day EMA, which is above 50-day EMA; Above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
Pivot Point=2551.52; R1=2554.74, R2=2558.54; S1=2547.72, S2=2544.50; S1 was breached
Confirmed Uptrend
2-Hour (e-mini future)
At the upper limit of a horizontal channel – high 2550.75/2553.75 and low 2541.50 – after retreating from it on October 12
At 10:00 AM on September 29, broke above a horizontal channel – high 2506.00 and low 2487.50 – 100% extension target near 2524.50 is achieved; 161.8% extension target, near 2536.00, is also achieved; 200% extension, near 2544.00, is also achieved; 261.8% extension is near 2555.00
Sequence of higher high and higher low since 12:00 PM September 5
At/above rising 20-bar EMA, which is above rising 50-bar EMA
30-Minute (e-mini future)
Moving up since 8:30 PM on October 12
Sideways since 11:00 AM on October 5 following an up trend since the of low of 2485.00 at 11:00 AM on September 25;
Above flattening 20-bar EMA, which is above a flattening 50-bar EMA
Previous Session
Most major U.S. indices mostly declined on Thursday October 12. Dow Jones Transportation Average was the only on to go up. Russell 2000 declined.
