Drifting higher since 8:30 PM on October 12; recent leg started at 3:00 AM
Odds are for an up to sideways day – watch for break above 2555.50 and below 2550.25 for change of fortunes
Key economic data due:
Empire State Manufacturing Index (30.2 vs. 20.3 est.) at 8:30 AM
Markets Around The World
Markets in the East closed mostly higher – Shanghai was down
European markets are mostly up – Italy and Switzerland are down
Currencies:
Up
Down
Dollar index (unch.)
GBP/USD
USD/JPY
USD/CHF
NZD/USD
USD/CAD
EUR/USD
AUD/USD
Commodities are mostly down
Up
Down
Crude Oil
Gold
Silver
Copper
Palladium
NatGas
Platinum
Sugar
Coffee
Cotton
Cocoa
10-yrs yield closed at 2.280% on October 13 down from October 12 close of 2.323%; 30-years closed at 2.812% down from 2.853%
Key Levels:
Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2552.09, 2548.31 and 2544.86
Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2557.65, 2559.86 and 2562.08
Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2556.50, the high of 10:30 PM on October 15 and break below 2552.25, the low of 7:30 AM
Pre-Open
On Friday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (December contract) closed at 2552.00 and the index closed at 2553.17 – a spread of about 1.25 points; futures closed at 2552.75 for the day; the fair value is -0.75
Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +1.75; Dow by +23.00; and NASDAQ by +10.00
Directional Bias Before Open
Weekly: Up
Daily: Up
120-Min: Side
30-Min: Side
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
Last week’s pivot point 2550.81; R1=2560.01, R2=2566.86; S1=2543.96, S2=2534.76; No levels were breached
An up week – fifth in last five weeks; seventh in last ten weeks
Broke above a down sloping flag (2378.36) on April 24, which has bullish implications; first target is near 2520.00 and the second target is near 2640.00
Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016; first target of 2285.92 is achieved; second target is near 2467.50
Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
Above 10-week EM; above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
Confirmed uptrend
Daily
A small red near doji candle following another near doji, which had followed a bullish engulfing candle
Last pattern, a down-sloping flag in June that was broken to the upside on July 13, is re-asserted
Above 20-day EMA, which is above 50-day EMA; Above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
Pivot Point=2554.30; R1=2556.52, R2=2559.86; S1=2550.96, S2=2548.74; R1 was breached
Confirmed Uptrend
2-Hour (e-mini future)
At/above the upper limit of a horizontal channel – high 2553.50/2555.50 and low 2541.50
At 10:00 AM on September 29, broke above a horizontal channel – high 2506.00 and low 2487.50 – 100% extension target near 2524.50 is achieved; 161.8% extension target, near 2536.00, is also achieved; 200% extension, near 2544.00, is also achieved; 261.8% extension near 2555.00 is also achieved
Sequence of higher high and higher low since 12:00 PM September 5
At/above rising 20-bar EMA, which is above rising 50-bar EMA
30-Minute (e-mini future)
At the upper limit of a horizontal channel; made a double bottom at 2550.25 on Friday and the breached the intermediate high of 2555.50 on Sunday before retreating to 2552.00
Moving up since 8:30 PM on October 12
Mostly moving sideways, with an up bias, since 11:00 AM on October 5 following an up trend since the of low of 2485.00 at 11:00 AM on September 25;
Above flattening/drooping 20-bar EMA, which is above a flattening 50-bar EMA
Previous Session
Most major U.S. indices closed mostly higher. Russell 2000 and Dow Jones Transportation Average closed down. Most made all time highs. but the range was small and closing price was lower than the opening price. DJT made a bearish engulfing pattern.
For the week, most of the indices were up, Russell 2000 was down. S&P 500, NASDAQ Composite and NYSE Composite made near doji patterns.
