Morning Notes – Tuesday October 24, 2017

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • S&P Futures are higher
  • Drifting up since 4:30 PM on October 23; new leg since 4:30 AM
  • Odds are for an up to sideways day – watch for break below 2462.50 for change of fortunes
  • No key economic data due

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East closed mostly higher –  Hong Kong was down
  • European markets are mostly higher – Switzerland and STOXX 600 are down
  • Currencies:
    Up Down
    • EUR/USD
    • USD/JPY
    • USD/CHF
    • USD/CAD
    • Dollar index
    • GBP/USD
    • AUD/USD
    • NZD/USD
  • Commodities are mostly down
    Up Down
    • Crude Oil
    • Copper
    • Palladium
    • Sugar
    • Coffee
    • NatGas
    • Gold
    • Silver
    • Platinum
    • Cotton
    • Cocoa
  • 10-yrs yield is at 2.410% up from October 23 close of 2.376%; 30-years is at 2.928% up from 2.890%

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2564.33, 2558.14 and 2547.92
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2572.23, 2574.75 and 2578.29
  • Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2569.75, the low of 3:30 PM on October 20 and break below 2562.50, the low of 4:30 AM

Pre-Open

  • On Monday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (December contract) closed at 2563.50 and the index closed at 2564.98 – a spread of about 2.50 points; futures closed at 2563.50 for the day; the fair value is 0.00
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 9:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +4.50; Dow by +141.00; and NASDAQ by +15.25

Directional Bias Before Open

  • Weekly: Up
  • Daily: Up
  • 120-Min: Up-to-Side
  • 30-Min: Up-to-Side

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

Monthly
  • Confirmed Uptrend
  • Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
Weekly:
  • A large green candle with small lower shadow and no upper shadow; breaking away from previous candle
  • Last week’s pivot point 2566.19; R1=2584.46, R2=2593.71; S1=2556.94, S2=2538.67; R1/R2 were breached
  • An up week – sixth in last five weeks; eight in last ten weeks
  • Broke above a down sloping flag (2378.36) on April 24, which has bullish implications; first target is near 2520.00 and the second target is near 2640.00
  • Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016; first target of 2285.92 is achieved; second target is near 2467.50
  • Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
  • Above 10-week EM; above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
  • Confirmed uptrend
Daily
  • A bearish engulfing candle; first down day after six days; only second down day in last ten days
  • Last pattern, a down-sloping flag in June that was broken to the upside on July 13, is re-asserted
  • Above 20-day EMA, which is above 50-day EMA; Above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
  • Pivot Point=2569.20; R1=2574.07, R2=2583.16; S1=2560.11, S2=2555.24; R1/S1/S2 were breached
  • Confirmed Uptrend
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • Declined from a high of 2577.25 to a low of 2561.50 by the end of NYSE session on October 23; since then drifting up
  • Rose above the 50-bar EMA after closing below it for the first time since 10:00 PM on September 26; five bars closed below it
  • Sequence of higher high and higher low since 12:00 PM September 5 was broken but again reasserted
  • At flattening 20-bar EMA, which is above flattening 50-bar EMA
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Made a double top at 5:30 AM on October 23; broke below the intermediate low and achieved 200% extension target
  • Drifting up since 4:30 PM on October 23
  • Above recently rising 20-bar EMA, which is below recently rising 50-bar EMA

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices declined on Monday October 23 after gapping up at the open. S&P 500, NASDAQ Composite, Russell 2000, NYSE Composite and Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index made bearish engulfing candle with almost no upper and lower shadows. Dow Jones Industrial Average and Dow Jones Transportation Average made Dark Cloud Cover candlestick patter, with no upper and lower shadows.

  • S&P 500 Sectors
Up Down
  1. Utility
  1. Consumer Discretionary
  2. Consumer Staples
  3. Energy
  4. Materials
  5. Industrials
  6. Finance
  7. Technology
  8. Heath Care
  9. Real Estate