Morning Notes – Wednesday October 25, 2017

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • S&P Futures are lower
  • Moving sideways 6:00 PM on October 24 with a slight up bias since 1:00AM
  • Odds are for a sideways day – watch for break above 2570.25 and below 2460.50 for change of fortunes
  • Key economic data due:
    • Durable Goods (2.2% vs. 1.0% est.) and Core Durable Goods (0.7% vs. 0.5% est.) at 8:30 AM
    • New Home Sales (est. 0.4%) at 10:00 AM

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East closed mostly higher –  Tokyo was down
  • European markets are mostly higher – U.K. and Switzerland are down
  • Currencies:
    Up Down
    • Dollar index
    • EUR/USD
    • GBP/USD
    • USD/JPY
    • USD/CHF
    • USD/CAD
    • AUD/USD
    • NZD/USD
  • Commodities are mostly down
    Up Down
    • Coffee
    • Cocoa
    • Crude Oil
    • NatGas
    • Gold
    • Silver
    • Copper
    • Platinum
    • Palladium
    • Sugar
    • Cotton (unch.)
  • 10-yrs yield closed at 2.406% on October 24 up from October 23 close of 2.376%; 30-years closed at 2.922% up from 2.890%

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2567.37, 2564.33 and 2558.14
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2569.84, 2572.23 and 2574.75
  • Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2566.25, the high of 7:00 AM and break below 2562.25, the low of 5:00 AM

Pre-Open

  • On Tuesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (December contract) closed at 2567.50 and the index closed at 2569.13 – a spread of about 2.50 points; futures closed at 2567.25 for the day; the fair value is +0.25
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the downside – at 7:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -4.00; Dow by -19.00; and NASDAQ by -10.00

Directional Bias Before Open

  • Weekly: Up
  • Daily: Up
  • 120-Min: Up-to-Side
  • 30-Min: Up-to-Side

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

Monthly
  • Confirmed Uptrend
  • Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
Weekly:
  • A large green candle with small lower shadow and no upper shadow; breaking away from previous candle
  • Last week’s pivot point 2566.19; R1=2584.46, R2=2593.71; S1=2556.94, S2=2538.67; R1/R2 were breached
  • An up week – sixth in last five weeks; eight in last ten weeks
  • Broke above a down sloping flag (2378.36) on April 24, which has bullish implications; first target is near 2520.00 and the second target is near 2640.00
  • Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016; first target of 2285.92 is achieved; second target is near 2467.50
  • Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
  • Above 10-week EM; above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
  • Confirmed uptrend
Daily
  • A harami doji within Monday’s large red candle engulfing candle
  • Last pattern, a down-sloping flag in June that was broken to the upside on July 13, is re-asserted
  • Above 20-day EMA, which is above 50-day EMA; Above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
  • Pivot Point=2568.96; R1=2572.35, R2=2575.56; S1=2565.75, S2=2562.36; No levels were breached
  • Confirmed Uptrend
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • Mostly sideways move since 4:00 PM on October between 2570.25 and 2560.50
  • Rose above the 50-bar EMA on October 19 after closing below it for the first time since 10:00 PM on September 26; five bars closed below it
  • Sequence of higher high and higher low since 12:00 PM September 5 was broken but again reasserted
  • At/below flattening 20-bar EMA, which is at/above flattening 50-bar EMA
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Sideways move since 6:00 PM on October 24 – between 2566.25 and 2560.50
  • Made a double top at 5:30 AM on October 23; broke below the intermediate low and achieved 200% extension target
  • At/below flat 20-bar EMA, which is below flat 50-bar EMA

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices advanced on Tuesday October 24, however, most made red harami candles within a large red candle. Dow Jones Industrial Average gapped up and made a large green candle and also made all time highs.

  • S&P 500 Sectors
Up Down
  1. Consumer Discretionary
  2. Energy
  3. Materials
  4. Industrials
  5. Finance
  6. Technology
  7. Utility
  1. Consumer Staples
  2. Heath Care
  3. Real Estate