Morning Notes – Friday October 27, 2017

/ October 27, 2017

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • S&P Futures are higher
  • Moving mostly higher since 12:30 on October 25 with recent leg starting at 3:00 AM
  • Near a resistance zone – high of 2570.25 at 2:30 PM on October 24
  • Odds are for an up to sideways day – watch for break above 2569.25 and below 2464.00 for change of fortunes
  • Key economic data due:
    • Advance GDP (3.0% vs. 2.6% est.) at 8:30 AM
    • Advanced GDP Price Index (2.2% vs. 1.7% est.) at 8:30 AM
    • Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment (est. 100.8) at 10:00 AM

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East closed mostly higher –  Sydney was down
  • European markets are mostly higher – Spain and Italy are down; Germany and France rising since 11:00 AM on October 25; Spain , Italy and Switzerland are rifting lower since 3:00 AM
  • Currencies:
    Up Down
    • Dollar index
    • USD/JPY
    • USD/CHF
    • NZD/USD
    • USD/CAD
    • EUR/USD
    • GBP/USD
    • AUD/USD
  • Commodities are mostly down
    Up Down
    • Sugar
    • Coffee
    • Cotton
    • Crude Oil
    • NatGas
    • Gold
    • Silver
    • Copper
    • Platinum
    • Palladium
    • Cocoa
  • 10-yrs yield is at 2.459% up from October 26 close of 2.452%; 30-years is at 2.958% down from 2.960%

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2559.80, 2553.34 and 2544.00
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2567.07, 2572.18 and 2578.29
  • Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2569.25, the high of 5:30 AM and break below 2564.50, the low of 4:00 AM

Pre-Open

  • On Thursday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (December contract) closed at 2557.50 and the index closed at 2560.50 – a spread of about 3.00 points; futures closed at 2561.50 for the day; the fair value is -4.00
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +5.00; Dow by +15.00; and NASDAQ by +52.00

Directional Bias Before Open

  • Weekly: Up
  • Daily: Up
  • 120-Min: Up-to-Side
  • 30-Min: Side-to-up

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

Monthly
  • Confirmed Uptrend
  • Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
Weekly:
  • A large green candle with small lower shadow and no upper shadow; breaking away from previous candle
  • Last week’s pivot point 2566.19; R1=2584.46, R2=2593.71; S1=2556.94, S2=2538.67; R1/R2 were breached
  • An up week – sixth in last five weeks; eight in last ten weeks
  • Broke above a down sloping flag (2378.36) on April 24, which has bullish implications; first target is near 2520.00 and the second target is near 2640.00
  • Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016; first target of 2285.92 is achieved; second target is near 2467.50
  • Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
  • Above 10-week EM; above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
  • Confirmed uptrend
Daily
  • A small body harami candle, like a gravestone doji; bouncing off 20-Day EMA on October 26
  • Last pattern, a down-sloping flag in June that was broken to the upside on July 13, is re-asserted
  • Above 20-day EMA, which is above 50-day EMA; Above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
  • Pivot Point=2562.42; R1=2565.05, R2=2569.69; S1=2557.78, S2=2555.15; No levels were breached
  • Confirmed Uptrend
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • Moving higher since 12:00 PM On October 25; nearing the resistance made by the high of 2570.25 at 2:00 PM on October 24
  • Broke below the 50-bar EMA and now back above it
  • Sequence of lower highs and lower lows since 6:00 PM October 22 is in danger of breaking
  • Above recently rising 20-bar EMA, which is at/below recently rising 50-bar EMA
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Drifting up since 8:30 PM on October 26; breaking above a congestion zone near 2560.00; facing near 2569.25 and 2570.25
  • Above rising 20-bar EMA, which is above rising 50-bar EMA

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices mostly advanced on Thursday October 26. NASDAQ Composite declined. Most made a doji candle near the lows of the day with small lower shadow and larger upper shadow. The market gave most of their gains in the final hour of trading. However, the S&P futures rose immediately following the close of NYSE session.

  • S&P 500 Sectors
Up Down
  1. Consumer Discretionary
  2. Consumer Staples
  3. Energy
  4. Materials
  5. Industrials
  6. Finance
  7. Technology
  8. Utility
  1. Heath Care
  2. Real Estate

 

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