Morning Notes – Wednesday November 1, 2017

/ November 1, 2017

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • S&P Futures are higher
  • Drifting higher since 8:30 PM on October 30
  • Odds are for an up – watch for break below 2579.25 for change of fortunes
  • Key economic data due:
    • ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (235K vs. 202K est.) at 8:15 AM
    • ISM Manufacturing PMI (est. 59.5) at 10:00 AM
    • FOMC Statement and Fed Funds Rate at 2:00 PM

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East closed higher
  • European markets are higher
  • Currencies:
    Up Down
    • Dollar index
    • GBP/USD
    • USD/JPY
    • USD/CHF
    • AUD/USD
    • NZD/USD
    • USD/CAD
    • EUR/USD
  • Commodities are mostly down
    Up Down
    • Crude Oil
    • Gold
    • Silver
    • Copper
    • Platinum
    • Palladium
    • Cotton
    • Cocoa
    • NatGas
    • Sugar
    • Coffee
  • 10-yrs yield is at 2.385% up from October 31 close of 2.376%; 30-years is at 2.864% down from 2.875%

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2574.98, 2568.25 and 2565.94
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2580.03, 2582.98 and 2585.48
  • Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2584.00, the high of 6:30 AM and break below 2579.75, the low of 5:00 AM

Pre-Open

  • On Tuesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (December contract) closed at 2572.00 and the index closed at 2575.26 – a spread of about 3.25 points; futures closed at 2572.75 for the day; the fair value is -0.75
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +10.00; Dow by +128.00; and NASDAQ by +28.00

Directional Bias Before Open

  • Weekly: Up
  • Daily: Up
  • 120-Min: Up-to-Side
  • 30-Min: Up-to-Side

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

Monthly
  • Confirmed Uptrend
  • Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
Weekly:
  • A near doji candle close to all time high;
  • Last week’s pivot point 2569.35; R1=2594.70, R2=2608.33; S1=2555.72, S2=2530.37; S1 was breached after three weeks
  • An up week – seventh in last five weeks; ninth in last ten weeks
  • Broke above a down sloping flag (2378.36) on April 24, which has bullish implications; first target is near 2520.00 and the second target is near 2640.00
  • Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016; first target of 2285.92 is achieved; second target is near 2467.50
  • Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
  • Above 10-week EM; above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
  • Confirmed uptrend
Daily
  • A small doji haram candle within another harami candle
  • Last pattern, a down-sloping flag in June that was broken to the upside on July 13, is re-asserted
  • Above 20-day EMA, which is above 50-day EMA; Above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
  • Pivot Point=2575.23; R1=2578.32, R2=2581.37; S1=2572.18, S2=2569.09; No levels were breached
  • Confirmed Uptrend
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • Breaking above a horizontal channel – high of 2577.25 and low near 2542.50; first target is near 2596.00
  • Sequence of lower highs and lower lows since 6:00 PM October 22 has broken; a new reverse sequence is being established
  • Above recently rising 20-bar EMA, which is above recently rising 50-bar EMA
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Moving higher since 8:30 PM on October 30; breaking above a rounding bottom pattern or a descending triangle; target near 2596.00
  • Above a rising 20-bar EMA, which is above a rising 50-bar EMA

Previous Session

Most major U.S. indices advanced on Tuesday October 31. Dow Jones Transportation Average declined. Most indices also made a harami pattern. S&P 500, Dow  Jones Industrial Average, NYSE Composite and Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index made doji harami candles. NASDAQ Composite made a small bordied spinning top candle that was completely above previous day’s real body. Russell 2000 made large body harami candle that was more like a piercing pattern. DJT is breaking down.

  • S&P 500 Sectors
Up Down
  1. Consumer Discretionary
  2. Consumer Staples
  3. Energy
  4. Materials
  5. Technology
  6. Utility
  7. Real Estate
  1. Industrials
  2. Finance
  3. Heath Care

 

Print Friendly, PDF & Email

Related posts